The Million Dollar Question(s)

Looking at Friday night’s game, there were several factors that could be pointed to that affected the outcome; the Cats turned it over, looked slow, were constantly out numbered and hardly troubled the scorers. Collingwood, on the other hand, looked like Harlem freakin’ Globe-Trotters. They could do no wrong. In the second half I was half-expecting Leon Davis to hide the ball in his jumper or climb on to Josh Hunt with a ladder. According to the media, it was either a night off for the Cats, or a night out for the Pies. So who do we listen to? How much weight do we put in one result? Was it the loss we had to have, or the beginning of the end? Well, sorry Herald-Sun readers, but probably neither.

Collingwood’s playing personnel allow them to play a certain style of game that gives Geelong trouble, we’ve seen it time and again over the past few years, and, to put it simply, it comes down to the difference between handballing and running, and kicking and marking.

The Cats play-on frequently, run and spread from the centre and out of defence, handball and then run to receive, drawing opponents and creating a free man by running in numbers. They move forward in waves, leaving defenders to make a decision to stick with their man or attack the ball carrier. This allows space for the forwards, space for ‘lace-out’ delivery, or a lot of goals kicked from the midfield and half-backs pushing forward. However, if we lose the midfield battle, it’s extremely difficult to win the match because our forwards, if we’re honest, don’t often enough win the 50-50 ball. This is almost the opposite of how Collingwood play.

The Maggies are light on the handball and instead kick aggressively down the field. When players are tied up in the contest, The Cats try to win possession, flick around quick handballs to find space, then run and spread as I earlier described. The Magpies, however, almost seemed to let Geelong take first possession and then kept their numbers on the ball carriers, applying unrelenting pressure to cause the turnover: Dirty pool? Maybe, but the resulting long kick became very dangerous, as it resulted in one-on-one contests and didn’t allow the Geelong defence time to react or help. This long-kicking style worked extremely well (read; looked fucking unstoppable) when the relentless pressure we saw on Friday night was coupled with Travis Cloke, Anthony Rocca and Alan Didak all playing out of their skins. Significantly, you can’t run out of defence when the opposition forwards are marking the ball. And mark the ball they did.

By games end most of the ‘crucial’ statistical departments, besides tackles, were reasonably close; there was only one disposal difference between the team’s totals. However, of the 375-odd disposals both sides had, Collingwood kicked the ball 254 times to Geelong’s 178, and as a result, took 131 marks to Geelong’s 83. That’s 48 less chances Geelong had to lay tackles. No wonder we got smashed in the tackle count. (And, often, a team losing the tackle count is simply a sign that they are second to the ball.)

Is it as simple as ‘kick the ball long’ and beat Geelong? No, of course not. Going long and direct to a contest in the goal square is great, but if you don’t have the players to win the ball in those positions, it doesn’t work. Just ask Denis Pagan. So does all this mean Geelong won’t be able to beat Collingwood should they meet later in the year? Again, no.

With everyone out to measure themselves against them, The Cats are finding it hard to get off to those flying starts that, essentially, finished off so many games in the first half last year.
The Cats have (pretty much) been unbeaten for the past 18 months and I don’t care if you’re playing under-11 ping-pong, it’s hard stay “up” for that amount of time.

Inflated expectation, being targeted, lack of focus, individual mental letdowns and a possible lack of fitness due to a late start to the pre-season all play a part in what is commonly referred to as ‘being due’ for a loss. And let’s not forget whom the Cats are missing from their premiership side (see; ruck-man and centre half-back, All-Australian).Unfortunately this all just happened to coincide with a match against a Collingwood team that had set themselves for the contest.

Up until last Friday, The Cats have played well below their best and still found a way to get over the line, while the Magpies saw this as a must-win game and were publicly challenged by their coach mid-week to do just that. I thought they were great, and if they repeat that form again, no-one else will get near them either.

The Cats know how to win and should believe undoubtedly in their game-plan. It is not yet the ‘business end’ of the season and we’ll see how they time their run home over the next three months. Don’t read too much into the Carlton result this weekend (either way it goes) but I would be watching the North Melbourne game in two weeks time very closely. But in the meantime, have a look at the mid-season form the last four premiership sides before Geelong:

2003 R12: Brisbane lost to West Coast by 59 points.
2004 R8: Port Adelaide lost to North Melbourne by 92 points.
2005 R10: Sydney lost to St. Kilda by 43 points.
2006 R12: West Coast lost to Port Adelaide by 37 points.

Interesting, no?