Wednesday, May 28, 2008

The Million Dollar Question(s)

Looking at Friday night’s game, there were several factors that could be pointed to that affected the outcome; the Cats turned it over, looked slow, were constantly out numbered and hardly troubled the scorers. Collingwood, on the other hand, looked like Harlem freakin’ Globe-Trotters. They could do no wrong. In the second half I was half-expecting Leon Davis to hide the ball in his jumper or climb on to Josh Hunt with a ladder. According to the media, it was either a night off for the Cats, or a night out for the Pies. So who do we listen to? How much weight do we put in one result? Was it the loss we had to have, or the beginning of the end? Well, sorry Herald-Sun readers, but probably neither.

Collingwood’s playing personnel allow them to play a certain style of game that gives Geelong trouble, we’ve seen it time and again over the past few years, and, to put it simply, it comes down to the difference between handballing and running, and kicking and marking.

The Cats play-on frequently, run and spread from the centre and out of defence, handball and then run to receive, drawing opponents and creating a free man by running in numbers. They move forward in waves, leaving defenders to make a decision to stick with their man or attack the ball carrier. This allows space for the forwards, space for ‘lace-out’ delivery, or a lot of goals kicked from the midfield and half-backs pushing forward. However, if we lose the midfield battle, it’s extremely difficult to win the match because our forwards, if we’re honest, don’t often enough win the 50-50 ball. This is almost the opposite of how Collingwood play.

The Maggies are light on the handball and instead kick aggressively down the field. When players are tied up in the contest, The Cats try to win possession, flick around quick handballs to find space, then run and spread as I earlier described. The Magpies, however, almost seemed to let Geelong take first possession and then kept their numbers on the ball carriers, applying unrelenting pressure to cause the turnover: Dirty pool? Maybe, but the resulting long kick became very dangerous, as it resulted in one-on-one contests and didn’t allow the Geelong defence time to react or help. This long-kicking style worked extremely well (read; looked fucking unstoppable) when the relentless pressure we saw on Friday night was coupled with Travis Cloke, Anthony Rocca and Alan Didak all playing out of their skins. Significantly, you can’t run out of defence when the opposition forwards are marking the ball. And mark the ball they did.

By games end most of the ‘crucial’ statistical departments, besides tackles, were reasonably close; there was only one disposal difference between the team’s totals. However, of the 375-odd disposals both sides had, Collingwood kicked the ball 254 times to Geelong’s 178, and as a result, took 131 marks to Geelong’s 83. That’s 48 less chances Geelong had to lay tackles. No wonder we got smashed in the tackle count. (And, often, a team losing the tackle count is simply a sign that they are second to the ball.)

Is it as simple as ‘kick the ball long’ and beat Geelong? No, of course not. Going long and direct to a contest in the goal square is great, but if you don’t have the players to win the ball in those positions, it doesn’t work. Just ask Denis Pagan. So does all this mean Geelong won’t be able to beat Collingwood should they meet later in the year? Again, no.

With everyone out to measure themselves against them, The Cats are finding it hard to get off to those flying starts that, essentially, finished off so many games in the first half last year.
The Cats have (pretty much) been unbeaten for the past 18 months and I don’t care if you’re playing under-11 ping-pong, it’s hard stay “up” for that amount of time.

Inflated expectation, being targeted, lack of focus, individual mental letdowns and a possible lack of fitness due to a late start to the pre-season all play a part in what is commonly referred to as ‘being due’ for a loss. And let’s not forget whom the Cats are missing from their premiership side (see; ruck-man and centre half-back, All-Australian).Unfortunately this all just happened to coincide with a match against a Collingwood team that had set themselves for the contest.

Up until last Friday, The Cats have played well below their best and still found a way to get over the line, while the Magpies saw this as a must-win game and were publicly challenged by their coach mid-week to do just that. I thought they were great, and if they repeat that form again, no-one else will get near them either.

The Cats know how to win and should believe undoubtedly in their game-plan. It is not yet the ‘business end’ of the season and we’ll see how they time their run home over the next three months. Don’t read too much into the Carlton result this weekend (either way it goes) but I would be watching the North Melbourne game in two weeks time very closely. But in the meantime, have a look at the mid-season form the last four premiership sides before Geelong:

2003 R12: Brisbane lost to West Coast by 59 points.
2004 R8: Port Adelaide lost to North Melbourne by 92 points.
2005 R10: Sydney lost to St. Kilda by 43 points.
2006 R12: West Coast lost to Port Adelaide by 37 points.

Interesting, no?

Thursday, May 22, 2008

Things We Think Know Now: Part V

Well, we’ve finally arrived. The final instalment of this drawn out, over-indulgent, cheap grab at a few ‘write-themselves’ blogs that meant I didn’t have to think of any interesting ideas for the first eight weeks of the season and essentially turned out like a two month late, season preview. Glad you ploughed through the other four bastards now? Anyway, two teams remain, so without further ado, let’s stick a fork in this thing, let’s drown those kittens, let’s bed those wenches, as I present…

The Sugar Ray Leonard ‘Contender’ Group

Hawthorn

The Hawks have become media darlings, with Buddy Franklin and his mates having more articles written about them this year than Tania Zaetta has slept with members of Australia’s defence force. (Ladies and gentleman, let’s hear it for the first Tania Zaetta joke of the season!) Granted, they are undefeated, and not in a ‘we-drew-with-Richmond’ kinda Western Bulldogs way, and they have blown away a few decent teams, including Collingwood, Adelaide, and, um, Melbourne? Hmm, let’s take a closer look here. Working backwards, they came back against Port Adelaide, just got over Richmond and were two to three goals better than Brisbane, North Melbourne and Fremantle. Are they as good as all the press they’re receiving indicates? Well, let me answer that this way; if JC himself was playing in the brown & yellow I don’t think they’d have many more articles to clip out. And speaking of the man himself, we all know Buddy is on fire at the moment, but, to paraphrase Mr. Wolf, let’s not start going Tania Zaetta on each other just yet (joke number two). It’s worth remembering that Cameron Bruce was once called the next James Hird, that some people thought Anthony was the better Rocca brother and that Adrian McAdam kicked 23 goals in his first 3 AFL matches before being out of the league 33 games later. Now, just to be on record, I’m pretty sure Franklin is better than all of those guys and that 100 goals is not out of the question for him. But have a look at these ass clowns, in alphabetical order: Birchall, Boyle, Clarke, Dew, Ellis, Ladson, Osbourne, Taylor and Young? No thanks. And their defence, which relies way too much on the unreliable Trent Croad and Campbell Brown has more holes to fill than, well, Tania Zaetta (that’s three). Oh, and I have to mention Jaryd Roughead, once called ‘the worst footballer in the AFL’ by Mrs Watson. Now, maybe I’m blinded by my unspeakable hatred for Alistair Clarkson, but I reckon they’re batting above their average, and I can’t wait til they’re found out. But for now, they’re here, as a contender; I made my bed, so now I have lie in it… with Tania Zaetta (didn’t think I had four in me, did you?).

Improver: I’m gonna say Buddy Franklin; he’s single-handedly taken the media hype machine to levels not seen since Britney stopped wearing panties, God bless her.

Stinker: I just can’t stand Alistair Clarkson. He wants his team to play ‘unsociable’ football, but Mark Williams’ gesture is unacceptable? He’s full of shit, the smug little prick.


Geelong
Look, The Cats are 8-0 playing without their All-Australian centre half back and ruckman, and if you think I’m going to jinx them with a glowing review after 8 weeks (and waste most of my material for the remainder of the season) you’re crazy. Let’s just say I’m glad Hawthorn and the Bulldogs (as well as Freo and Melbourne) are getting all the press, while The Cats quietly go about their business. And if you think this is a cop out, well, you’re probably right. But there are no premierships won in May and there will be no talk of them at Big League.

I didn’t, however, say anything about June. See you in eight days.

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Things We Think We Know Now: Part IV

Note: I wasn’t quite feeling the Big V vs. Dream Team match during the week but I was always going to watch it. I tried to persuade Mrs Watson to do likewise but he claimed he couldn’t watch it for fear of Geelong players possibly getting injured. I therefore ended up watching it with my Dad, and as they showed footage of the players warming up in the rooms, something strange happened; I began to get the buzz. Here was Chris Judd handballing to Jon Brown, to Ryan O’Keefe, to Matty Scarlett, to Steve Johnson, to Adam Goodes… Cut to the Dream Team coming out of the race; Daniel Kerr, Buddy Franklin, Andrew McCleod, Pavlich, Richo, Adam Cooney… Holy shit, I thought, we have an all-star game here! I got genuinely excited for a minute there, my mind quickly rushing ahead, processing the possibilities, the match-ups, the speed, the skill… And, while all that stuff was there, it still seemed that it was missing something.

It definitely had its moments when it did transcend the cynicism surrounding such an event: There was Scarlett out-muscling Motlop and setting up a goal; Fevola attacking the packs and marking everything in sight; team-mates matching-up on each other; and pretty much every passage play that Jonathon Brown was involved in.

Yes, the rest was skilful, the ball was moved remarkably quickly, the umpires let a fair bit go (which was great) and the big forwards were firing, but… Well, that’s just where I fall down: I can’t quite put my finger on any one thing missing from the match itself. So, was it just me?

I think it says something of AFL fans that they essentially have no room for representative football, even if the players are super keen for it and the AFL do manage to get the best on the field at once. Perhaps the AFL have made their ‘bread & butter’ product so good, and have us so wrapped up in our teams’ fortunes that we can’t see past that. Mrs Watson is a prime example. All he was worried about was Cats players potentially missing games for the club. Although, I did receive a boozy text from him paraphrasing Ted Whitten’s famous, “stuck it right up ‘em” quote, albeit in slightly more colourful, and, mind you, anatomically correct, language, so who knows.


The Jennifer Love Hewitt “Still Frisky” Group

Brisbane
I can’t quite explain it, and I know they don’t have the record to be deserving of this spot, but I just like the look of the Lions. I reckon all the parts are there but they just haven’t quite pulled it together yet. They have a solid, man-sized ‘spine’ (Bradshaw, Brown, Patful, Merrett) and their running/midfield group is a good mix of experience (Black, Power, Travis Johnstone, Lappin) and youth (Sherman, Selwood, Roe, Rischitelli, Drummond). Add to this two good ruckmen (Charman and Luenburger), some x-factor utility players (Brennan, Notting, Hooper, Corrie, Copeland), an Irishman (Begley) a coach with the fattest moustache in the biz (Lethal Leigh), a good home field advantage with awesomely cheesy name (the GABBAtoir) and you’ve got yourself a legitimately frisky team and paragraph with so many brackets that its almost impossible to read. I also think they’ve had a fairly tough draw so far this season and should have a decent run of wins in the middle part of the year. In fact, this is the subject of another “Urban Burger” bet between Mrs Watson and me. I have backed Brisbane to be higher on the ladder than St Kilda in four weeks time. Crazy? Maybe. And, sure, I swore of the evils of gambling only last week, but Mrs Watson keeps baiting me, and who am I to turn him down? As Confucius once said, “a man is not a pot”. I’m not entirely sure about that statement’s relevance here, but that’s the beauty of vague Eastern mysticism and the lure of free hamburgers.

Improver: Tough to go past Daniel “Dallas” Bradshaw. He missed all of last year and has what, 30 goals through 7 matches?

Stinker: Um, Travis Johnstone? He’s been ok, and I don’t know how much people were really expecting of him… Alright, how about Nigel Lappin, he hasn’t even played this year! Can I say Luke Power is over-rated?


Collingwood
Again, you may think I’ve got these guys too high, but that’s because of the lack of blood that gets to my head these days due to the stroke I suffered during last season’s prelim against them. Sure, they haven’t looked great so far, but it’s still early and they have more big game experience than say the Bulldogs or Hawthorn, and I think they’ll have something to offer come September. Collingwood has always played as a ‘whole greater than the sum of its parts’, but let’s be honest, some of those parts have been fairly shit. And I point the finger squarely at Mick Malthouse and his silver horseshoe moustache. I think he’s lost it. I think Mick lost his mind several years ago and was secretly fired by the Pies, only he refused to believe it. Now, out of sympathy, Collingwood rigs up two coaching boxes for each game, one filled with the real coaching staff, and the one that Mick goes to, filled with look-a-likes who pretend to send his orders down to the field and then slip sedatives into his Powerade. Mrs Watson went so far as to suggest that Mick’s moustache is actually fake, and that one day he’s going to hold a press conference where he rips it off and announces that he’s fooled everyone; “I’ve been wearing a fake moustache for 15 years! Ha!” But regardless of who is really in charge down there, something is happening that is preventing their list from developing as all their "promising" players seem to plateau: Cloke, Pendulbury, Thomas Clarke, Dane ‘Centaur’ Swann, etc. And then look at the list of busts they’ve had who were all called “promising” at one time or another: Ryan Lonie, Chris Egan, The other Cloke Bros, Guy Richards, Richard Cole and Mark McGough. And then remember the difference between ‘promising’, ‘inconsistent’ and ‘de-listed’ is about 30 senior games.

Improver: It has been interesting to see Nathan Buckley become the best special comments man in football just 7 weeks into his career. He is insightful, articulate and consistently ahead of the play – as opposed to just watching a replay and describing what’s happening. Basically, he’s the Bizarro David Schwartz. Seriously, how that moron is drawing a Channel 7 pay-cheque is beyond me. Who makes these decisions? Sure, he’s an ex-player, but is that the only requirement to getting a commentary job? As an old drunk in Anglesea once told me, “Just ‘cos a man’s got a ring doesn’t mean he’s a circus”.

Stinker: Daaaaaaaaaaaaaale… Daaaaaaaaaaaaaaaale…


Adelaide
I must admit, I haven’t seen many Adelaide games this season (read: none), but there’s something suss about Neil Craig. He’s got those beady little eyes, that voice that makes it impossible to take him seriously and he takes training in playing shorts. Yep, there’s definitely something shifty about Neil, or Craig, or Neil. He’s got something up his sleeve, and for that, the Crows can not be discounted. They are 5-2 with the only losses being to the undefeated Bulldogs and Hawks; kinda snuck under the radar there, didn’t they? McCleod continues to defy his age and anger the Gods, Simon Goodwin is now taking bets in the forward line and, along with rookie Kurt Tippett, has given them an attacking option to go along with their general defensive mindset. However, despite Neil/Craig’s mind-bending, I just can’t shake the feeling that the Crows are a little creaky, especially away from AAMI stadium. I mean, their only away win this year was against Carlton; can you really see them winning more than two finals? The good (bad) news, however, is that the Crows play Carlton, Richmond and Essendon twice, almost guaranteeing a top 4 finish.

Improver: Jason Porplyzia. No jokes to make here. I just reckon he’s alright.

Stinker: Quick quiz: Name the player who took no. 18 at North Melbourne after W. Carey, and then took no. 2 at Adelaide after W. Carey? Answer: Brad Moran. I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes on a drug-fuelled, sexual-romp/bender this year. I will be surprised, however, if anyone cares.


Western Bulldogs
Now, I am aware that my continual references to Mrs Watson, and his continued lack of input, could somehow make it appear as though he doesn’t actually exist, or, possibly, that he exists, but only in my mind. And with anonymity provided by the internet, this could very well be the case. I could have been logging on as both authors, oblivious, and letting a split personality out through the creation of Mrs Watson. My Mrs Watson persona allowed me to say things that the normally reserved Captain wouldn’t dream of; calling players out, asking for fistings, making jokes about Robert Walls’ dead wife, and I would read on, half in horror, half in admiration, as this, unbeknownst to me, freed part of psyche, continued to produce venomous, malicious and increasingly outrageous blogs until one day I found myself on the top floor of an abandoned skyscraper with a pistol in my mouth and Helena Bonham Carter trying to save me and the world bank about to… Oh no, wait. That’s Fight Club. Here’s Mrs Watson.

Mrs Watson: Look... lets not get a stiffy over the Bulldogs just yet, ok! Sure they haven't "technically" lost a match this year, but let's face it, a draw against Richmond may as well be counted as such, and bending Melbourne over a picnic table hardly warrants a high 5, let alone Premiership consideration. They won't look any better this year than they do right now. Just you wait and see, Bulldog supporters, your decision not to buy a club membership was a wise one. Out.

Improver: Averaging 25 disposals (10 contested), almost 5 clearances, 4 inside 50s and with 11 goals from 7 matches, Adam Cooney finally seems deserving of his no. 1 draft spot, no?

Stinker: What has Daniel Giansiracusa ever done, other than appear in that awful, awful Peter Jackson suit ad (and inadvertently set-off the Justin Koschitzke downward spiral)? What a fucking mirage of a football player.


Coming Up: Only two teams remain…

Wednesday, May 07, 2008

Things We Think We Know Now: Part III

Just to recap, for those at the back, I’m rating all teams on what we’ve seen so far this year and putting them into groups with other teams of similar pedigree. Check previous posts for the “Charlie Sheen” and “Billy from Predator” groups.

The Peter Everitt Memorial “Just Good Enough to Lose With” Group

North Melbourne

I briefly toyed with naming this group the “North Melbourne Group”, because really, no-one personifies what I’m attempting to describe here better than the Roos: A team that’s good enough to beat the bad teams, lose against the good ones, scrape into the finals one week and be in Bali smashing glasses over their own heads the next. Every year the media predicts their downfall, and every year they counter with the “no respect” card. Can we all just agree they’re average and pencil them in at 8th every year? The problem is that they are attempting to play an attacking style to attract fans yet they don’t have the personnel to pull it off. Everything about them screams average, as summed up by their captain, Adam ‘Beige’ Simpson. The Roos need a personality injection, stat! Underbelly was seemingly filmed entirely in North Melbourne, how about some sort of tie-in with that? How about a buddy-cop TV show? Here’s my pitch…

Jeno Caruthers (Daniel Harris) is a hard-nosed organised crime detective. He’s a good cop whose biggest flaw is that he cares too damn much. He gave up on his dream to run chartered fishing tours out of the top end of Queensland after his little brother Travis got caught up with the wrong crowd and ended up catching a bullet. Now he’s on a quest for justice and vengeance, and not necessarily in that order.

Then there’s Chief McGinley (Dean Laidley) who’s one week away from retirement and a full pension and there’s no way in hell a loose cannon like Caruthers is going to jeopardize all that. McGinley’s plan is to keep Jeno riding a desk until his retirement.

Trouble starts when Jeno is assigned a new partner, young hotshot “A.C.” Woodley (Josh Gibson). A.C. is bold, brash and keen to hit the streets to make a real difference, regardless of proper procedure or Chief McGinley’s consequences.

Can Jeno avenge his younger brother? Can A.C. stay out of trouble? Can Chief McGinley keep them on a leash long enough to reach retirement? To find out tune in to Channel 7’s latest hit drama, Kangaroo Cops, following Sea Patrol…


Well, it’s either that or they recruit Alan Didak.

Improver: They look a bit better with Nathan Thompson back, who is averaging a shade under 3 goals a game. Again, not bad, not great, just about average.

Stinker: I’m gonna go with Shannon Watt, not based on any particular evidence from this season, but just because, generally, he’s rubbish.


St Kilda
As my particularly nasty blog a few weeks back pointed out, I take some pleasure in the failings of the Saints. And as I also pointed out, and at the risk of sounding like Malcolm Blight, I just don’t think they’re very good. Their so-called ‘gun’ players (Dal Santo, Riewoldt, Kosi, Ball) are all heavily over-rated and their bottom players, who somehow manage to get a game every week, (Fiora, the Clarke Bros, Blake, Gilbert, et all) are VFL players at best. And why they continue to re-animate the corpse of Michael Gardiner is beyond me; at best he’s an Anglesea reserves player. Still, I like watching Ross Lyon squirm as he continually gets questions comparing his team to Sydney, only, you know, a less successful one. Come clean, Ross, just admit you stole Sydney’s game-plan. You’ll feel better about yourself, trust me. Everyone wants the Walnut methodology back, especially Walnut himself, who is now in the media and leading the charge for his own reinstatement. No longer limited to sms-ing players to get them to turn on the coach, Grant now has a national media platform to spout his crackpot theories and inconsistent answers. Sure, the entire St Kilda board would have to be replaced, and Grant would have to drop the on-going legal action, but imagine if Grant Thomas came back to St Kilda. Imagine the inspiration he could give them by eating nothing but figs until they won 5 games in a row, or taking them to see “The Bucket List” instead of training. Imagine the downward spiral Ross Lyon would experience. His only recourse would be to join the media and immediately begin bagging his former club and it’s current coach. Seriously though, an AFL coach getting fired in favour of Grant Thomas is like your girlfriend dumping you to take back her cheating, alcoholic, broke, spouse-beating boyfriend, or worse, dating Stephen “Allegedly” Milne.

Improver: Luke Ball can walk again!

Stinker: Tie: Aaron Fiora has officially taken the mantle as ‘softest player in the AFL’ from, well, actually I think he always had it. On the other hand, it’s great to see Fraser Gehrig back and looking about as interested as someone just booked in for a 3 hour colonoscopy.


Sydney
After costing me consecutive meals at our local burger joint, I am finally given up the Swans and the evils of gambling. (And as Mrs Watson was wiping his mouth with his own sense of self-satisfaction he found time to remind me that at least they lost with a legal number of players on the field this week. Seriously, how does that shit happen? Darren Jolly should have been sitting on the bench, not handballing to set-up the game-tying score. Accident my ass. What is so hard about ‘one player on, one player off’? Paul Roos, you have set a new low in your never-ending search to be the perfect self-deflecting douchebag. Screw you. They should have given the points to North. This is even more despicable than the fact that Darren Jolly is gainfully employed as a professional athlete.) It appears the Swans have finally dropped off the pace, with injuries, old age and that ugly, ugly game-plan catching up with them. No-one is afraid of them anymore; they’re like the brain-damaged Rocky Balboa being challenged by Tommy Gunn in the atrocious Rocky 5. Still, they’ll cheat their way to enough wins to make the finals (and possibly cost me another burger) but don’t expect a legitimate premiership threat from Sydney in the current era again.

Improver: I quite like this Ed Barlow fellow.

Stinker: Considering Barry Hall is out for the next 2 months, and that Michael O’Loughlin holds his place despite totalling about 15 kicks over the past 3 seasons, Nick Davis must be doing something pretty wrong to get dropped. Couldn’t happen to a nicer bloke… Prick.


Coming Next: The Jennifer Love Hewitt “Still Frisky” Group