Playing the Spaces

Here we are. September. The sun is shining in Melbourne and I am so excited/nervous about this game that I can’t think about it anymore without turning into Eminem about to bring up mum’s spag bol. So let’s take an emotional cold shower and run through some key statistical indicators that worked against Hawthorn and how that bodes for The Cats.

Hawthorn’s last four games looked like this: lost to Melbourne, beat North Melbourne, lost to West Coast, and juuuuuust beat Collingwood. It is hardly inspiring stuff. And it also appears to lay out a pretty effective blueprint for beating Hawthorn.

1. Win contested possessions: It’s been well documented that Hawthorn struggles in contested possession; they want clean, uncontested ball, where their skill players can carve you up in space, and it’s almost as if they allow the opposition to get the messy stuff on the inside, hoping they’ll cough it up. Geelong need to win this category and win it handsomely. Melbourne won the contested possession count +25, North Melbourne were +17, West Coast a staggering +45, and Collingwood +19. During the season Geelong averaged a +12.7 differential in contested possession (3^rd in the AFL), something they can hopefully increase on Friday night to more like the +19 they recorded in the round one victory.

2. Win clearances: Contested possession is often correlated with clearances but Hawthorn seem to bet the other way; they pressure the opposition so their contested possession does not lead to a clearance, but rather to a turnover, which allows them to play in space. Good contested ball players not only win the ball but also clear it to advantage, something that is crucial against the Hawks. Melbourne won the clearances +11, North Melbourne were -4, West Coast +12 and Collingwood +4. Geelong averaged a +2.7 differential during the season (4^th in the AFL) and were +12 in round one. 

3. Take marks inside 50: So you’ve won the ball, you’ve cleared the ball, and without getting too Gary Ayres on you, what do you wanna do next with the ball? That’s right, hopefully mark the ball inside your attacking 50 metre arc. Geelong averaged a league leading 15.2 marks inside 50 per game this year, a figure that they’d hope to get to again after taking 16 in round one. Against the Hawks Melbourne took 13 marks inside 50, North managed 9, West Coast 13 and Collingwood 17. Wet weather or not, this is something the Cats need to exploit. 

4. Convert all of the above to the scoreboard: The Cats have too often this year dominated possession and inside 50s and yet failed at the pointy end of the ground. Against Hawthorn they’ll need scoreboard pressure because, as Collingwood found out, the Hawks are capable of quick and devastating scoring bursts. They’ll also need a pretty big score; leading 58 to 41 after three quarters is not going to get it done. Something closer to round one, when Geelong kicked an impressive 18.8 (116) to win by 30, is required. Melbourne hung 110 on them, the Roos managed only 57, the Eagles kicked an inaccurate (13.14) 92 and Collingwood got to 111 before realising they didn’t know how to win. This point also reflects the need to kick accurately, something that has been a bit of an issue most of the season.

The Cats need to do all of these things exceptionally well, not just because of the occasion and the opponent, but also because of the venue. Geelong was able to beat other contenders like Adelaide, West Coast, and the Bulldogs largely because they closed them down defensively; and this is in part because they played them on more traditionally “oval” venues.

Unlike Kardinia Park, Adelaide Oval, Subiaco, or even The Dome, the MCG is a uniquely wide venue. At 160 metres long and a 141m wide it is almost a circle, and is a full 26m wider than KP. Hawthorn’s game is reliant on this space. And having to defend them, to cover all that ground zoning off and filling space defensively, is not only taxing but also often just simply not possible with all the extra real estate.

By attacking the above four areas Geelong can expose some of Hawthorn’s weaknesses and limit their exposure to some of Hawthorn’s strengths. It's a simple game, right?

God speed, Big Leaguers.