Absence of Malice: A preview, of sorts



I think I’ll just skip any comment on the Geelong v Hawthorn game, other than to say it was over in the first 10 minutes. You can tell very quickly if the Cats are interested or not, and in the early going, they looked about as interested as Picture Magazine would be in naked pictures of Bea Arthur. Not that I can blame them, (the players, or Picture) the lack of effort is completely understandable. Have you ever given your two weeks notice at a job, and then completely cruised through those final days? Exactly. You have no possible motivation to work. What I would be interested in are the stats on teams who lead by 25 points or more at quarter time; I reckon they’d have a 90% winning record, and most of them by that amount or more.

(Before I move on to a look at the upcoming finals matches, we here at Big League will be conducting our own football department review of the Geelong Footy Club which will be shared with you all over the coming weeks. This will include player reviews and a look at who won’t be around next year and who the new coach may be [we can’t give too much but we have mail that Lips won’t be back]. If we’re lucky, Mrs. Watson might also divulge some Brownlow betting advice, a how-to guide on winning your office footy tipping and reveal the Michael J Fox like secrets of his success in waltzing to victory in our dream team competition. Smug bastard. But I digress…)

The finals are all about the end of one season, and the beginning of a new, knock-out season lasting only four weeks. It is a cliché, but it’s a whole new ball game. The games are more intense, more physical, more defensive and scrappier than the regular season. Often complex game plans go out the window as teams, and men, under more pressure than ever, revert back to the most basic of under 15’s strategy; gain yardage. The teams that best weather the physical pressure, and are quickest to get their emotions and nerves under control, often quickly gain the ascendancy. This goes double for the Grand Final. So what do we look for when trying to pick finals winners? I humbly submit the following;

1) Experience – This counts when trying to reign in the adrenaline and nerves, and is why everyone shouldn’t be wetting their panties [I hate that word! – Mrs. Watson] about the Dockers just yet. The Crows have plenty of finals experience to the Dockers’ zero. They know what to expect and that’s why they’ll get up. Adelaide by 41 pts.

2) Physicality – As the games get more intense and scrappier, it’s all about having the big bodies that can withstand pressure and apply pressure and force the ball forward through strength alone. This is especially true for the forward line and is why I expect the Pies to overcome the Dogs. Collingwood by 21 pts.

3) Home Ground Advantage – Like most things in the finals, this is magnified, especially with the performance of the non-Victorian teams this year. This is also why I’ll be taking the Weagles over the Swanies; if it was in Sydney, I’d probably go the other way. West Coast by 12 pts.

4) Mental fragility – That’s a nice way of saying stay away from chokers. And seeing as though Richmond isn’t involved (again), I’m dedicating this to the Demons. St.Kilda by 28 pts.