Grand Final Breakdown (Hit me baby, one more time)

This is it. It’s here. And at this point I’m about as shaky as Britney at the MTV awards, so let’s break down the match-ups and see if we can find an edge somewhere.

Ruck
This is the area getting the most press at the moment, with everyone calling for the inclusion of Steven King, but did these people actually watch the VFL? It seems the longer the week goes the better King was in the VFL; Monday he was ok, Tuesday he was good and today he was frickin’ outstanding. By Friday he’ll be taking Bartel’s Brownlow. Stick a fork in King, well, either that or size him up for that Western Bulldogs jersey. There’s no chance Blake gets dropped on the eve of a Grand Final. His confidence would be lower than Maverick’s after Goose’s death. And yes, I have actually watched films made after 1986.

Ottens v Lade
Should be a classic match-up with Ottens in career best form and Lade probably the best tap ruckman going around. I’ll be interested to see how they work around the ground though; with Lade pushing back, Geelong will need to use Ottens going forward.

Blake v Brogan
Let’s remember that there’ll only be one ruckman in the centre at a time, and as long as The Cats keep their rotations similar, Blake will be competitive in the middle against Brogan, who, let’s not forget, has been massively over-rated in this whole debate. Seriously, when did we all start thinking the Grand Final would turn on the performance of Dean fucking Brogan?


Midfield
Port will be missing Michael Wilson, who, although not a superstar, gives them a much needed element of toughness, something the rest of the midfield lacks. Therefore hopefully Chappy gets a run in there and gets himself involved early. The main dangers for Geelong are obvious: The two sets of brothers, Cornes and Burgoyne. However, if we can get past them, we get into their next tier of players (Cassisi, Surjan, Salopek and Boak) whom Geelong’s even midfield rotation should be able to crack.

Ablett v Cassisi
This is how they matched up last time, although there was no Bartel in that one. Cassisi simply isn’t up to it and something tells me that Junior is gonna be in the, ‘I didn’t get the Brownlow but I’ll let you decide who the best player in the comp is’ frame of mind. (By the way, did anyone else’s heart start racing like a coked-up monkey when Simon Black was leading with 6 rounds to go and you took him at 70-1? No? Oh well, never mind…)

Bartel v Kane Cornes
The Brownlow medallist versus the 2nd ugliest Port player. Kane gets called a tagger but led the league is disposals this year. Jimmy likes to push back and help out the defence. Hopefully this doesn’t free Kane up too much, or hopefully someone belts him.

Shaun Burgoyne v Cameron Ling/Corey Enright
I know Ling has been pretty much the best tagger all year, but Enright has a pretty good history in match ups like this. From memory he’s done jobs on Goodes and maybe Judd. Whoever is on him needs to prevent him getting a free run at the stoppages. (I also think it might be worth putting Ling on Kane Cornes, as long as is doesn’t end up in one of those ‘I’m tagging him, you’re tagging me, and I’m just along for the ride’ type of deals.)

Chad Cornes v Joel Corey/Corey Enright
Enright might be the match up for Ports ugliest player, otherwise they might let him and Joel Corey go head-to-head. You can’t tag ‘em all, so maybe look for Joel Corey to find himself free for the Cats and maybe one of the hideous Cornes’ for Port.

Port Forwards v Geelong Defence
The Cats defence has been their strength for years and must not only negate Port’s forwards but show the run that has been so impressive all season. This is why David Wojcinski is so important to the Cats; when he plays well the Cats play well. Hopefully he can get some early touches and build his confidence to carry and take players on.

Tredrea v Harley
These days Warren is reduced to kicking cheap goals and hamming it up to the feral Adelaide crowd, so with ‘Skip’ in good touch, this should allow Scarlett to play another opponent and then ‘zone off’, help out and then run from the back, which he does so well.

Ebert v Scarlett
He’s the Power’s leading goal kicker (56) and Josh Hunt would be suicide. Although a small forward, he does most of his work leading up and marking so Scarlo’s acceleration and reading of the play will help, and if it comes in high, he can leave Ebert to spoil. Ebert is the danger man.

Westoff v Milburn
Dasher will make the youngster, who is untested on the big stage, work both ways.

Motlop v Enright
This joker is getting WAY too much press for kicking some cheap goals against a below-par Kangaroos team. Let’s see how he performs under actual pressure. Other options are Wojcinski or Mackie, with whoever’s left to share ex-Richmond corpse David Rodan.


Geelong Forwards v Port Defence
This is where the Cats can really get on top. Last week Geelong had almost 20 more inside 50’s than Collingwood and five more scoring shots. If we can get the same bulk of numbers, the Port defence may buckle.

Nathan Ablett v Wakelin
Which ever Wakelin brother it is, he’s past it. My feeling is that he’ll play on Nablett, not Mooney. Nate-Dogg really needs to glove a few to take the pressure off Mooney and Steve Johnson, nothing crazy, but 2 or 3 goals would be nice.

Mooney v Thurstans
Thurstans is just plain rubbish, but Williams will give him first crack at Mooney before the inevitable Wakelin-switch. Either way, Mooney will be facing an inferior opponent and needs to take advantage early. He’s been quiet-ish the past couple of weeks but did kick a couple of big goals last week. Hopefully he has a big game, or at the very least, belts one of the Cornes’.

Steve Johnson v Logan, Chaplin and Pettigrew
I’m sold on Dog Johnson. He’s a gamer. He’ll go through a few opponents on his way to the Norm Smith. You heard it here first.

That leaves Chapman, Kelly and Stokes as the small forwards on whoever’s left. Chapman stands out as a potential match-up problem and will be no doubt looking to make up for a quiet game against Collingwood, or at the very least, belts one of the Cornes’.

The Tip
Port gave up plenty of goals this season so expect their ruckman to be pushing hard into defence. Also, last time these two teams met Port essentially flooded the middle of the ground, forcing the Cats to the wings. The wider MCG will prove tougher to bottle up than KP but the Cats need to be smarter going forward and use Ottens on the way out. Grand Finals are traditionally physical affairs and The Cats have the harder bodies and harder minds. There’s also the small matter of a Brownlow medallist who didn’t play last time. Cats by 40 points… and one of the Cornes’ to get belted.


*To all Big Leaguers, leave a comment and let us know what you’re thinking and how you’re feeling. Me? I’m drained, I’m nervous, I’m confident, I’m terrified and I’ve got nothing else to say but, Go Cats!

The Prelim, or, Into the Blue Again

What a moment. Bradley Ottens, playing his best game for the club, in the club’s biggest game in 10 years, palms down yet another hit out, straight into the path of Gary Junior. The-son-of, continuing to write his own folk-lore, shrugs off a would-be tackler, accelerates away and snaps, what will be, the winning goal from 40 metres out. I breathe again. The Cats best player has come through when it was needed most.

Despite the fact that my heart had to be manually restarted several times, that was the best game I’ve seen all year. I couldn’t move, couldn’t speak and afterwards, didn’t know how to act. The Lady Captain said I sounded like I’d seen a ghost. Hopefully I had; the ghost of Geelong’s past, just buried at a funeral attended by 98,000.

There’s a lot to like about winning a prelim final like that. With Collingwood playing out of their skin, a few of our players down and the umpires continually bending us over, we still found a way to win. And that in itself will be the biggest thing to come out of either prelim final. While Port was piggy-backed into a Grand Final, Geelong faced, and passed, a searching test. They will feel like they can overcome anything.

Brad Ottens dominated the ruck and Geelong looked twice as good at the centre breaks with him in the middle. There’s a bit of talk that, due to Blake’s patchy form, Steven King may come into the side for the GF. But I don’t see that happening. In fact, I don’t see any changes to the team and wonder if King will even be at the club next season.

However, it might be worth mentioning that Shannon Byrnes not only missed another easy goal, but he handpassed directly to a Collingwood player late in the final term (which resulted in a Magpie goal) and astonishingly, actually tackled Matthew Stokes to the extent that a free kick was paid to Collingwood for Byrnes’ tackle. Unbelievable, just un-fucking-believable.

On the subject of un-fucking-believable, Geelong must surely get a fairer deal with the umpires next week. The obvious two that stood out were the 50m penalty paid against Selwood that gifted Shane O’Bree a goal and the last minute free kick to Tony Rocca for, well, I’m still not sure what that was paid for. And how was Rocca’s form? Going off clutching his leg so he wouldn’t have to take the pressure shot; way to bitch out, ‘Pebbles’. And he had the nerve to question Tom Harley’s courage? That was the most pissweak display I have ever seen on the field. Don’t be surprised if Rocca is moved when the Pies make their play for Chris Judd. What a heartless impostor, Sav was 10 times the player Anthony is.

The Brownlow
I don’t know, but it seems to me that the Brownlow must be a distraction for the players of teams in the Grand Final. Every year it seems that the two Grand Finalists have contenders for the medal who have to pretend to be unaffected by the whole deal. Surely there is a better time to have what is probably sport’s most drawn out award ceremony.

But perhaps I just think that this year because Geelong has two genuine chances to take home the Chas. I have a sneaking suspicion that Junior won’t poll as well as many people think he will, and that Bartel may actually finish with more votes than him, albeit not enough to win it.

As much as I hate to say it, I get the feeling Chad ‘Douche Bag’ Cornes may win it, or even, dare I say it, Brent ‘worst-Brownlow-medallist-ever’ Harvey. I actually had a dream a few weeks ago that I picked up the paper to see Harvey had actually won it in a tie with Adam Goodes. Needless to say, I didn’t wake up in the best of moods.

Jon Brown may be a chance as well; I’d imagine he’ll have around four or five 3-vote games. And his team-mate Simon Black, a proven vote getter, might be worth a rough punt at about 70-1.

The VFL
The Geelong VFL team wrapped up the premiership today, flogging Coburg by 70 plus points with Tom Lonegan kicking 5 goals in the third quarter after spending the first half in defence. Possible AFL call-ups Steven King, Travis Varcoe and David Johnson all got through unscathed without any of them really being impressive. There were plenty of players who looked good and should be further involved in the seniors next season; Prismall, Davenport, Grima, Hawkins and Gamble all come to mind.

The Final Word
Traditionally, Grand Finals favour the fierce, the strong and the more poised, and Geelong’s hardened edge, not to mention bigger bodies, will show next weekend. We have passed our test and come next Saturday will ask some hard questions of Port. The Cats have been to the edge and buried one ghost already. Next Saturday we will witness a burial of a different sort.

Calling Mick

Each week the stakes get higher. And each week I become more nervous. More unstable. Thinking about the game so much, and what it means in terms of the legacy of this football club, is not good for me. I’m one more Dale Thomas story away from flipping out and leaving some sort of Alec Baldwin-like rant on Mick Malthouse’s answering machine.

So I decided to insulate myself from the media and all other outside influences. It seems to work for the players. I wasn’t going to read the articles, check who tipped who, scour over every injury report or check every historical fact and previous game report that may give some clue. No, I was going to wait until I was safely tucked up in the Keepers Arms in North Melbourne, surrounded by friends and cold ale, awaiting the first bounce. Everything else seemed meaningless.

Then I remembered that about half way through the Collingwood-Eagles game last week I had thought, ‘Geelong is going to flog either of these bunch of douchebags’, and I also remembered that, hey, we finished on top of the ladder. We beat everyone. Who the Hell have Collingwood beaten? And then I looked into that.

Collingwood finished 6th on the ladder, with a 13-9 win-loss record. That’s only 3 games better than Essendon. Their percentage was 101%, which was worse than Freo’s. Collingwood lost games to Melbourne and Richmond during the season. They had another easy draw, playing only once against the top 5 teams in the competition, Geelong, Port Adelaide, West Coast, Kangaroos and Hawthorn. And then I went deeper again.

On strength of schedule, Collingwood’s wins came against teams with a combined record of 116-164-6, while their losses came against teams had a combined record of 99-95-4. The only team above them on the ladder that they beat during the season was the Kangaroos, and it’s probably fair to say they’ve boxed out of their division this year.

In the finals, however, a lot of media have pointed out that The Pies have beaten the last two premiers in consecutive weeks, which is true, but let’s look at those wins a little more closely.

Firstly, they beat a shaky Sydney team that’s been on the decline since 2005. The Swans desperately missed Tadhg Kennelly, their most creative play maker, and Barry Hall was doing his best Brett Spinks impression all season. Plus, because the Swans lack pace Collingwood match up well on them, beating them twice during the regular season. And they also got the luxury of playing them at the MCG.

Last week Collingwood JUST got over the line against a depleted West Coast Eagles in extra time, a game that, quite frankly, wouldn’t have gotten that far if, a) Darren Glass or Andrew Embley could kick straight in the last 5 minutes, b) John Worsfold didn’t completely screw the pooch by taking Glass and Cox off simultaneously at the end of the third, or c) The Eagles actually had 4 fit players on their bench. You’re telling me Geelong would need an extra 10 minutes to put away an Eagles team without Judd, Cousins, Kerr and Ashley Hansen and prominently featuring Rowan Jones? Please.

It’s also been fun to watch, as Patrick Bateman and Chris Jackson commented on after the last post, the press coverage that The Maggies have been getting after that extra time win. With only two games that week, the other of which was a stinker, Collingwood were always going to get a heap of press. Then, the players have come out saying they aren’t afraid of The Cats, (which if you remember correctly, was exactly what the Kangaroos said 2 weeks ago) that they’ll use the All-Australian snub as motivation and have pretty much talked themselves up to whoever will listen. It's like they need to hear it from somewhere, so they say it themselves.

And because the Cats haven’t said anything in the media, and haven’t played for 2 weeks, all of sudden people start talking themselves into Collingwood, thinking, “Yeah, they ARE an even team” and “Mick’s right, the sky IS the limit” and even, “Shane O’Bree is awesome!” Ok, well maybe not that last one, but you get the point.

Meanwhile, after the first quarter of Friday night’s game, these same people will be thinking, “Playing extra time of a punishing game, travelling back from Perth, AND coming up against Geelong with a week’s rest? Why didn’t I see this coming?” And the answer is, because you are a fickle idiot.

Ok, so I may not be exactly ‘insulating myself’ from the media circus, but I feel these things needed to be pointed out. Oh, and I might need Mick Malthouse’s number after all; I think I’ve got something he should hear.

Diary of a Madman: West Coast vs Collingwood

Welcome to The Captain’s Cabin as I present a running diary of the Collingwood West Coast game! Tonight’s game is brought to you by 3 Melbourne Bitter long-necks and half a pack of Dunhill Blues!

Pre-Match: Beau Waters, my sleeper Norm Smith pick last year and front-runner for ‘off-season alcohol/violence/drug problem’ this year, is a late withdrawal. The Pies have lost Josh Fraser. Not to injury, they've just lost him.

1st Quarter: You know, seeing as though the Cats will be playing the winner of the tonight’s game I thought it might be a good idea to get a little insight into each team, make a few jokes about Matt Priddis’ hair and pray for players to start dropping like in the first five minutes of ‘Saving Private Ryan’. But after 15 minutes of David Schwarz and no goals, I’m thinking I might have to cut this thing short.

12 minute mark: Replay of Sean Rusling going at a mark and then completely dropping his head out of the way. Straight out of the Kent Kingsley play book that one. Not good signs.

15 min: Great. Ashley Hansen looks like he’s done that hamstring again. Well, there go the Eagles chances. When Hansen plays the Eagles are something like 40-5 over the past 3 seasons. Without him it’s about 7-12. Something crazy like that. Oh, and yes, I’m going for West Coast.

20 min: Finally someone scores a goal and it’s Paul Freakin’ Medhurst? I just spent 20 minutes telling my friend Matt how the Pies need to lose this joker. Mind you, Dean Cox kicked it straight to him. Must have thought he was a team-mate with that hair cut.

Quarter Time
West Coast 0.4 (4) Collingwood 1.5 (11)
Channel 7 just showed a stat that the Eagles have never had a goalless first quarter at Subiaco. They followed this up with a stat that said Tim Watson and David Schwarz have never been seen in the same room together.

2nd Quarter
5 min: After an early Dean Cox goal, Andrew Embley runs along the wing, has two bounces and bangs one in from 50. Hey, remember when Embley had that throat thing, and couldn’t talk for a while? Did anyone else find him more likeable when he couldn’t speak?

7 min: Dane Swan, most over-rated man in the AFL, goals from a set shot. Look how short his legs are. He’s like a centaur with the back half cut off.

20 min: Finally this game is opening up a bit! In the space of 3 minutes we’ve had goals to Chad ‘Flatline’ Fletcher, Alan ‘Killer’ Didak and Mark ‘Frenchie’ LeCras. In that same time I’ve had three terrible nickname jokes.

28 min: The Pun-dog! David Wirrpanda goals after James Clement’s kick-in goes straight down his throat. I’m now looking forward to the next Collingwood kick-in and the obligatory, “I’ll take this one, Champ.”

Half Time
West Coast 5.5 (35) Collingwood 4.8 (32)
For West Coast, Dean Cox has been really good and Matt Priddis has 20 disposals already. If they win, Ling will probably get him next week in what will be a 'handsome' match-up. Rowan Jones, on the other hand, has to be the worst Eagle ever, narrowly edging out Daniel Metropolis.

For Collingwood, Sean Rusling looks a little out of his depth tonight while that mid-week trip to the Spearmint Rhino seems to have freshened up Alan Didak.

3rd Quarter
6 min: Quentin Lynch throws Wakelin and goals early for the Eagles. While we’re talking about the big Q-tip, where would you put his IQ? I’m guessing somewhere between a fig and Miss Teen South Carolina.

9 min: Goal to Priddis. Seriously, someone at the club needs to say something about that hair.

15 min: Another goal to the Pun-dog! Another fuck-up from James Clement! Eagles look like they’ve finally found their rhythm and go 22 points clear. This one could be over. Cue crucial Daniel Chick mistake…

25 min: Travis Cloke wakes up for long enough to take a grab and snap a goal from in close. Meanwhile, somewhere in Australia, his brothers are on to their 9th bourbon can and deciding whether to call their used car dealership ‘Cloke Bros Motors’ or ‘Jason and Cameron’s crazy world of fantabulous automobiles and flying machines!’

30 min: John Worsfold puts his hand up for the memorial Grant Thomas Award by simultaneously taking Dean Cox out of the middle and Darren Glass off Anthony Rocca. Collingwood respond to these devastating tactics by getting two quick centre clearances and 2 goals to Rocca in 2 minutes. (By the way, don’t you think we should start calling him Tony Rocca? It just seems to fit.)

Three Quarter Time
West Coast 8.10 (58) Collingwood 7.12 (54)
Thanks to Woosha’s genius moves the Pies are not only within a kick, but have a huge sniff. Both teams haven’t been great so it’s going to come down to who has the momentum at the right time. Well, either that or a crucial Daniel Chick fuck up.

4th Quarter
8 min: Frenchie LeCras gets a light free kick which I was about to complain about until I saw it was against Heath Shaw. Another over-rated Magpie. Meanwhile, Rowan Jones has just broken the record for ‘most contests pulled out of’ for a game. Daniel Metropolis is rolling in his grave.

12 min: Goal to Medhurst. I can’t believe the commentators keep saying how well he’s played. Then again, it is Channel 7. And while we’re on the subject, what’s Leigh Matthews doing there? He’s not on the game call, but popped up at half time with two or three useless sentences. That’s Tim Watson’s job. I’m confused.

15 min: Didak pulls one out of his ass from outside 50. Pies in front. Fucking wannabe gangster.

20 min: Matt Rosa goals from a set shot from 50m after marking a Nathan Buckley kick from deep in defence. Bucks has missed a few targets tonight, maybe it’s not time to start penciling him in next year just yet. Eagles back in front.

24 min: Daaaaale. Daaaaale. Dale Thomas puts Collingwood back in front. Not long to go.

28 min: Andrew Embley levels the scores. The ball is in Collingwood's forward line, players go everywhere, diving on it, trying to force it forward or back. Spoils, smothers, tackles, SIREN! We’re going to Overtime!

4th Quarter Time(?)
West Coast 10.12 (72) Collingwood 10.12 (72)
For only the second time in AFL history we’ll have extra time. Two five-minute halves, a two-minute break as they change ends, no coaches allowed on the ground, hands wrapped in bandage, dipped in resin and covered in broken glass.

Overtime: After a point each, Carlton reject Chris Bryan kicks the first goal of overtime. If they’re still tied after extra time I believe they’ll play another 10 minutes. And after that I think it comes down to a spelling bee. Good thing for Collingwood that Josh Fraser is out.

The second half of overtime flies by with the Pies spilling a crucial ball out of the middle to Pendlebury who goals. Dane Swan then pumps his little legs into an open goal right on the siren. The Pies kicked nine of the last 11 goals of the match. Ouch.

Final Score
West Coast 10.14 (74) Collingwood 13.15 (93)

Next Friday night. Preliminary Final. Geelong v Collingwood. Let the good times roll.

Duelling Trumpets and Other Tunes



Well, I think it’s fair to say no-one expected that. That was what they called in the old days, a towel-up. Anyway, now that the Cats can sit back, enjoy the week’s rest and prepare for another Prelim final, here are a few other things I’ve been pondering whilst waiting for Matthew Egan’s stem cells to thaw…

Retired players
This season has been the last for a number of the game’s truly great players; Riccuitto, Darcy, Hird, Archer, Gehrig, Byron Picket, Kouta, Chris Johnson and possibly Nathan Buckley to name a few. (Also, I’m pretty sure that Warren Tredea retired 2 seasons ago but no-one has had the heart to tell him yet.) It is now a true transitional period for the league, with a new crop of young stars poised to emerge and take the place of the retiring greats. By the way, with Daryl Wakelin also retiring, shouldn’t the league step in and force his twin brother, Shane, to retire as well? It just seems to make sense to me.

Lance Franklin
Speaking of emerging young stars… To quote Will Ferrell from Zoolander, “he’s so hot right now.” Seriously, is there any other player in the league you’d rather have for the next 10 years? And Hawthorn picked Jared Roughhead ahead of him? That’s like turning down Christy Turlington to go out with Courtney Love. It’s not often you find a player that tall, that quick and that mercurial. Not to mention clutch; that kick in the dying seconds to beat Adelaide was far from easy. He’s a genuine match winner and could down as one of the all time greats. Right now, Richmond fans, who had two chances to draft him, should be repeatedly slamming their genitals in the nearest drawer while staring at an autographed Richard Tambling Coburg Guernsey.

Shannon Byrnes
At this stage, I’m pretty sure ‘Monty’ is holding Bomber’s kids’ hostage somewhere. I keep waiting for ‘Lips’ to hold a Mel Gibson, Ransom style press conference where he offers a pile of cash for Monty’s head and screams, “Give me back Travis Varcoe!” Granted, Byrnes was not terrible on the weekend, but name me a Geelong player who didn’t look like a million bucks? Oh, he did find time to run into an easy open goal and miss badly though: At least he’s consistent.

The Other Finals Matches
I guess the game we’re all going to be watching, and hoping for several blown ACL’s, is West Coast v Collingwood. The Pies looked pretty darn good against a declining Swans team on Saturday night, but I get the feeling that it won’t be that easy against the Eagles, even with that ridiculous injury list and Chris Judd moving about as well as Keyser Soze. I don’t really care who wins either as both teams present some pluses and minuses. I am a bit worried about potentially matching up with Collingwood’s tall forwards, but we’ll lick that stamp when we come to it.

The other game, Hawthorn v Kangaroos, is really like one of those Olympic bronze medal matches; playing to see who the first loser is. Having said that, I’d like to see the Hawks go over to Adelaide and have another crack at the Power because, going on form, I don’t think the Roos will worry them too much. West Coast by under two goals and Hawthorn by 40.

Miscellaneous
Everyone looked in good nick, but especially the midfield; we all know how good Junior and Tickets Bartel and these guys are, but with Joel Corey having a rare quiet day, it was good to see ‘Bobo’ Kelly step up his game… I was worried about our lack of height in defence but it’s not really an issue when the ball isn’t going down there… Even though he kicked 5 goals, Cam Mooney had a pretty quiet day. Likewise, Steve Johnson was not as good as he has been in recent weeks, so there is room for improvement… I am thoroughly enjoying the renaissance of Andrew Mackie, the Jared/Max experience, Geelong’s ‘duelling trumpet’ theme song and Nathan Ablett’s improved game since he lost that ridiculous, sensitive-Euroman-soccer-style hair tie... It was great to see the Cats really stamp themselves as the team to beat in these finals. And it was even better to witness it in person: It's the first finals match I've been to. Great stuff Cats, only 2 more to go...

Just Win, or, S.O.S. Scarlo

Ok Big Leaguers, its finals time. This is what we’ve been waiting for. So how the Hell are we all feeling? I’ve had more mood swings this week than a junkie going through menopause. I’m a bundle of nerves. The home & away season was like coming out $1500 ahead after a 14 hour black-jack session and the finals is like taking those winnings and putting it all on black. I can’t watch the spin, I just want to win. Just win.

After hearing about the Matthew Egan injury, I was devastated. Gutted. He is the biggest and strongest of the Cats defenders and has taken the opposition’s best forward every week. And the Kangaroos possess a bevy of tall forwards. After weeks of selling myself on the ‘we’re good enough, we’ll do it’ theory, I was back to being terrified again.

I feel a little better about it now though, for the following reasons: a) we’ve had a blessed injury run all season, b) Jared/Max should slot straight back into the defence, c) the form of ‘Skip’ Harley, and d) our midfield should be good enough to keep it down our end as well as helping out in defence. The one player that can make the biggest difference here, however, is Matthew Scarlett.

This season, with Egan doing so well on the competition’s best forwards, the jobs Scarlo used to get, Scarlett has been used on the 3rd or even 4th forward each week. This allowed him to ‘zone off’, to leave his man to help in the air, or to run and start attacking movements. He was almost playing loose, knowing that his opponent wasn’t going to be kicked to a lot of the time. But Scarlett made his name as a defensive, nasty, scragging full-back who gave up few kicks and even less goals. That’s how he was recognised as an All-Australian. With Milburn, Mackie and now Rooke, we don’t need another rebounding back-flanker; we need our All-Australian full-back back.

The following is a break down of the Kangaroos marking forwards and their goal tally in 2007: Corey Jones 46, Drew Petrie 36, Leigh Brown 20, Aaron Edwards 17 and David Hale 14. Looking at that list, Scarlett really needs to take Petrie, a player to whom he’s giving up 5cm in height and 7kg in weight. Harley will then probably get Brown, Milburn on Edwards, Hunt might get Corey Jones, and David Hale should probably be getting splinters. That leaves Jared/Max to beat up on Shannon Grant and Andrew Mackie to roam across half-back. Of course, I’ve been wrong all year so why stop now? Either way, I think we have enough flexibility to cover it. The other issue that arose from the Port Adelaide game, and I think the Kangaroos will have noticed, was dealing with teams who flood the corridor and force us wide.

During that game, Port clogged up the middle, allowing Geelong players to run free on the wings, letting them get their kicks as long as they were out wide. Often, those free players were used coming out of defence. Often that player was Shannon Byrnes. Often the ball was turned over.

During the Brisbane game, however, The Lions were not able to do that because Geelong was winning the stoppages. This means The Cats weren’t beginning their attacks from half-back and therefore allowing the opposition time to cram the corridor, which, as we all know, is the part of the ground that The Cats love to use. It’s part of why they’ve been so successful.

So, if we can’t get on top of the clearances, if we aren’t ‘owning the corridor’, we need to be able to get the ball into scoring positions from the wings. I’d suggest firstly dropping Shannon Byrnes (which should be a formality at this stage) and making sure those players who are getting free out wide are some of our best and most creative disposers of the ball. Alternatively, get Josh Hunt out there and get him to run as far as he can and then kick it as long as he can. Simple game, really.

Let’s hope so anyway. There is much to ponder before Sunday and I will probably continue to be up and down until I take my seat at the MCG (yes, I’m going) and that wheel starts spinning.
However they do it, however it happens, just win Cats. Otherwise I may walk out of the MCG, straight through Richmond, into Crown Casino and sit down at the blackjack table, with one eye on that roulette wheel again. Just win.


*Note: Mrs Watson has just departed on an overseas trip and won’t be back until after the finals. He will be watching the Grand Final from a dive bar in New York City. I hope they serve Carlton Draught at 8am.

**Note: Big League Little League has just passed 10, 000 hits. Again, thanks to everyone for reading. Go Cats.