Grand Final Breakdown (Hit me baby, one more time)

This is it. It’s here. And at this point I’m about as shaky as Britney at the MTV awards, so let’s break down the match-ups and see if we can find an edge somewhere.

Ruck
This is the area getting the most press at the moment, with everyone calling for the inclusion of Steven King, but did these people actually watch the VFL? It seems the longer the week goes the better King was in the VFL; Monday he was ok, Tuesday he was good and today he was frickin’ outstanding. By Friday he’ll be taking Bartel’s Brownlow. Stick a fork in King, well, either that or size him up for that Western Bulldogs jersey. There’s no chance Blake gets dropped on the eve of a Grand Final. His confidence would be lower than Maverick’s after Goose’s death. And yes, I have actually watched films made after 1986.

Ottens v Lade
Should be a classic match-up with Ottens in career best form and Lade probably the best tap ruckman going around. I’ll be interested to see how they work around the ground though; with Lade pushing back, Geelong will need to use Ottens going forward.

Blake v Brogan
Let’s remember that there’ll only be one ruckman in the centre at a time, and as long as The Cats keep their rotations similar, Blake will be competitive in the middle against Brogan, who, let’s not forget, has been massively over-rated in this whole debate. Seriously, when did we all start thinking the Grand Final would turn on the performance of Dean fucking Brogan?


Midfield
Port will be missing Michael Wilson, who, although not a superstar, gives them a much needed element of toughness, something the rest of the midfield lacks. Therefore hopefully Chappy gets a run in there and gets himself involved early. The main dangers for Geelong are obvious: The two sets of brothers, Cornes and Burgoyne. However, if we can get past them, we get into their next tier of players (Cassisi, Surjan, Salopek and Boak) whom Geelong’s even midfield rotation should be able to crack.

Ablett v Cassisi
This is how they matched up last time, although there was no Bartel in that one. Cassisi simply isn’t up to it and something tells me that Junior is gonna be in the, ‘I didn’t get the Brownlow but I’ll let you decide who the best player in the comp is’ frame of mind. (By the way, did anyone else’s heart start racing like a coked-up monkey when Simon Black was leading with 6 rounds to go and you took him at 70-1? No? Oh well, never mind…)

Bartel v Kane Cornes
The Brownlow medallist versus the 2nd ugliest Port player. Kane gets called a tagger but led the league is disposals this year. Jimmy likes to push back and help out the defence. Hopefully this doesn’t free Kane up too much, or hopefully someone belts him.

Shaun Burgoyne v Cameron Ling/Corey Enright
I know Ling has been pretty much the best tagger all year, but Enright has a pretty good history in match ups like this. From memory he’s done jobs on Goodes and maybe Judd. Whoever is on him needs to prevent him getting a free run at the stoppages. (I also think it might be worth putting Ling on Kane Cornes, as long as is doesn’t end up in one of those ‘I’m tagging him, you’re tagging me, and I’m just along for the ride’ type of deals.)

Chad Cornes v Joel Corey/Corey Enright
Enright might be the match up for Ports ugliest player, otherwise they might let him and Joel Corey go head-to-head. You can’t tag ‘em all, so maybe look for Joel Corey to find himself free for the Cats and maybe one of the hideous Cornes’ for Port.

Port Forwards v Geelong Defence
The Cats defence has been their strength for years and must not only negate Port’s forwards but show the run that has been so impressive all season. This is why David Wojcinski is so important to the Cats; when he plays well the Cats play well. Hopefully he can get some early touches and build his confidence to carry and take players on.

Tredrea v Harley
These days Warren is reduced to kicking cheap goals and hamming it up to the feral Adelaide crowd, so with ‘Skip’ in good touch, this should allow Scarlett to play another opponent and then ‘zone off’, help out and then run from the back, which he does so well.

Ebert v Scarlett
He’s the Power’s leading goal kicker (56) and Josh Hunt would be suicide. Although a small forward, he does most of his work leading up and marking so Scarlo’s acceleration and reading of the play will help, and if it comes in high, he can leave Ebert to spoil. Ebert is the danger man.

Westoff v Milburn
Dasher will make the youngster, who is untested on the big stage, work both ways.

Motlop v Enright
This joker is getting WAY too much press for kicking some cheap goals against a below-par Kangaroos team. Let’s see how he performs under actual pressure. Other options are Wojcinski or Mackie, with whoever’s left to share ex-Richmond corpse David Rodan.


Geelong Forwards v Port Defence
This is where the Cats can really get on top. Last week Geelong had almost 20 more inside 50’s than Collingwood and five more scoring shots. If we can get the same bulk of numbers, the Port defence may buckle.

Nathan Ablett v Wakelin
Which ever Wakelin brother it is, he’s past it. My feeling is that he’ll play on Nablett, not Mooney. Nate-Dogg really needs to glove a few to take the pressure off Mooney and Steve Johnson, nothing crazy, but 2 or 3 goals would be nice.

Mooney v Thurstans
Thurstans is just plain rubbish, but Williams will give him first crack at Mooney before the inevitable Wakelin-switch. Either way, Mooney will be facing an inferior opponent and needs to take advantage early. He’s been quiet-ish the past couple of weeks but did kick a couple of big goals last week. Hopefully he has a big game, or at the very least, belts one of the Cornes’.

Steve Johnson v Logan, Chaplin and Pettigrew
I’m sold on Dog Johnson. He’s a gamer. He’ll go through a few opponents on his way to the Norm Smith. You heard it here first.

That leaves Chapman, Kelly and Stokes as the small forwards on whoever’s left. Chapman stands out as a potential match-up problem and will be no doubt looking to make up for a quiet game against Collingwood, or at the very least, belts one of the Cornes’.

The Tip
Port gave up plenty of goals this season so expect their ruckman to be pushing hard into defence. Also, last time these two teams met Port essentially flooded the middle of the ground, forcing the Cats to the wings. The wider MCG will prove tougher to bottle up than KP but the Cats need to be smarter going forward and use Ottens on the way out. Grand Finals are traditionally physical affairs and The Cats have the harder bodies and harder minds. There’s also the small matter of a Brownlow medallist who didn’t play last time. Cats by 40 points… and one of the Cornes’ to get belted.


*To all Big Leaguers, leave a comment and let us know what you’re thinking and how you’re feeling. Me? I’m drained, I’m nervous, I’m confident, I’m terrified and I’ve got nothing else to say but, Go Cats!