3 outta 4

The good thing about the early stages of the AFL season is that after a loss, even a particularly bitter loss, by Tuesday or so you start to look ahead to the next game, kinda like when you get back to work on Monday and immediately start emailing your buddies about what they’re doing next weekend. The ‘next game’ syndrome gives clubs a chance to redeem themselves in the eyes of supporters and media alike and rebuild some goodwill with fans; no-one talks about a game that was played two weeks ago. It’s like everyone involved in the game has either a short attention span or a short memory or both. I think this “taking it one week at a time” thing has gotten out of hand.

I remember when Terry Wallace was coaching the then Footscray Bulldogs, which featured players such as Steve Kretiuk, Simon Atkins and Danny Delray, he implemented an interesting goal for his team for the season. Wallace, and his players, spoke openly about how they had divided the season up into lots of four games, with the goal being to win 3 out of each 4. This trusted the players to maintain a ‘win each week focus’ while still acknowledging the reality and unlikeliness of a team going undefeated, which is completely opposite to the classic ‘one week at a time’ theory. The overall effect of this on the players’ psyche remains unknown, and indeed probably immeasurable, although we do know for a fact that those Bulldogs teams never won a premiership.

The reason I bring this up is that Wallace’s ‘3 outta 4’ theory was pretty radical and has not, that I know of, ever been trialled again, although it does make for a pretty good calculation of how to finish in the top 4. In a 22 game season, winning 3 out of 4 games, and splitting the remaining two games, would give you 16 wins. Last season West Coast finished on top with 17 wins and Adelaide, in 2nd, had 16 wins. These were the only two teams to reach 16 wins.

What we can say then is that winning 3 out of 4 games, in a 22 game season, is quite difficult, and that, as infinite as it always seems in early April, a 22 week season is not long. The NBA plays an 82 game season; Major League baseball, 162 games. Teams in those leagues can afford to drop their first two games. The Cats can not; they’ve probably got to win the next 3 in a row.

Now on to some notes about the Geelong v Carlton game:

Expect Geelong’s ‘man-on-man’ tactics to work a lot better against the slower and less skilled Carlton side. Watching the Brisbane v St.Kilda game it was interesting to see that Brisbane did a lot of zoning off, not sticking exactly next to their man but more so guarding the dangerous space instead and switching when they needed to, forcing St.Kilda wide and slowing down their forward forrays. Also expect the Cats to come out pretty physical against the young Blues side.

Hopefully the Cats start Chappy in the middle to give them an immediate physical presence, and Ottens in the ruck, to get him some touches and confidence. Ling will probably get Nick Stevens and, as suggested by Chris Jackson in Birmingham, hopefully none of the ball. Scarlett on Fevola, Egan on Whitnall and Mrs. Watson on over-priced Carlton draughts at the venue.

Tom ‘Tomahawk-Hatchet-Cox-Arquette’ Hawkins has been named for his first game (we quickly need to sort out his nickname situation before Mrs. Watson glasses someone) along with Travis Varcoe. This is what the team needs, I reckon, get them in early, along with Djerrkura, and let them adjust to senior level as quickly as possible. Don’t expect too much from them, like Selwood last week, but Goddamn it’ll be good to see the big bastard in the goalsquare. (And while we all know Varcoe is wearing the famous no. 5 guernsey, it’s worth mentioning that Hawkins will wear no. 26 worn by his father but made famous by the great Matthew McCarthy. Pour a 40 ouncer on the curb for the end of the Matthew McCarthy Era.) With Selwood, and now Varcoe and Hawkins debuting, that makes 3 outta 4 exciting rookies Geelong has blooded in only two rounds of football, Nathan Djerrkura being the fourth. 3 outta 4.

Cats to win by 42 points.