A Tight Ass’s Betting Guide to Season 2006, or, Get on Bruce!
I’m not a betting man. No, hang on, let me rephrase that: I don’t bet…much. In fact, my history as a punter is a little pathetic when compared to the gambling expertise exhibited by some of my good friends. The way that some of these friends know the ins and outs of the gambling way of life is often times cause for a good mate like me to worry, but since none of them have ever asked for a large cash loan, or stolen my DVD player for a quick profit at Cash Converters, I leave them be. I, on the other hand, up until a few weeks ago, couldn’t even tell you where to find the TAB in my neighbourhood – surely Mum would be proud – and I generally feel like a fuckin’ idiot in front of those touch screens inside. There’s usually a long line of bad smelling, cranky gamblers snaked behind me, waiting for me, ‘the rookie’, to find the part of the Sportsbet program where I can put $3.50 on Josh Hunt to kick the first goal against Essendon because he’s paying $33 odds. I once dared to ask some of the more experienced gamblers in line for change of a fiver. Needless to say, the coinage was not provided - the machine only takes notes! Note to self: If planning to make piss-weak bets, carry plenty of small notes, cause the touch screen does not give change.
I have had my victories though. I once won $75 on a Crows v Kangaroos Grand Final when I tipped the exact winning margin. The victory spurred me on to support the Crows (as a back-up club) for many years to come, and generally raised my profile as a punter amongst my circle of friends (at least for a few weeks). A few years later, in a moment of drunken clarity, a friend and I placed $20 on Carlton to beat Melbourne at Optus Oval by more than 34 points, and as luck would have it, this ridiculous bet scored us close to $90 dollars each. My crowning glory as a pro gambler came this year however, when one Friday afternoon, on my way to happy hour, I found $10 outside St Mary’s church here in Geelong. Being 4:25pm, I had a little time to spare before the cheap drinks began, so I sort out the local gambling house to try my luck with my new wealth. Geelong and St. Kilda were playing that night, and being there no money to be had on the Saints, I placed the whole 10 on the Cats to win by between 17 and 36 points at $8.60. It was my lucky day; the Cats won by 3 goals.
However, some of my more stupid bets have led me to believe that these 3 victories were just, well, lucky. Believe it or not though, I have learned a few things from my experiments with gambling, things which I feel confident enough to share with you. Number one, Victorians should not gamble in NSW. I don’t know if anyone has tried to place a bet on one of those stone-age machines up there, but having used the top of the line touch screens here in Victoria, it’s damn near impossible to navigate your way around their 1983 model devices. I almost wasted a whole 4 day stay in Sydney on trying to work this Atari-esque contraption out. Don’t waste your time. Number 2, unless you’re extremely wealthy, and can afford to bet large sums of dosh, there’s very little money to be had on backing favourites, when it comes to AFL betting; it’s a two horse race. Sure, Adelaide will beat Essendon on most occasions, everyone knows that, but why waste $5 backing them at $1.25 odds? The real money is in making slightly risky, sometimes absolutely ridiculous wagers. This is, after all, the catch 22 involved in all types of gambling, but this is also why AFL is the perfect game for tight-ass punters like myself.
“So where’s the money this year?” I hear you ask. Well, after browsing through Monday’s Herald-Sun and coming across some rather interesting odds from the TAB, I have a few risky recommendations to make to my feel cheap skates. First up, let’s talk about Flag Odds.
It’s no surprise that the TAB has Adelaide ($3.50) and West Coast ($4.75) as favourites, because let’s face it, most of us have already picked one of these two teams to take the Premiership anyway, but unless you have a couple of hundred dollars to splurge on either team, it’s not worth your tight-ass $10 bet. For the stingy punters like me, you wanna put your money on a team with an outside chance. While I’d rather tuck into a plate of cat faeces than suggest Sydney have a chance to win, they’re looking very tempting at $7.50, as do Geelong (for the faithful) at $14. Surprisingly, after an atrocious first half of the year, the TAB have placed Geelong as stronger favourites to take the Cup than Fremantle ($126), Port Adelaide ($26) and the Bulldogs ($21) who all currently sit above the Cats on the ladder – the Bulldogs being in the top four.
For the mega tight-ass bet, or just for a laugh, put a buck on Carlton or Essendon at….get this…$2001. I mean really, why give them a chance at all? That’s like giving odds on Terry Wallace to abstain from giving a press conference for 24 hours. Even at $2001, I don’t Terry could resist a day without media exposure. Onya Terry, you wanker.
Ok, let’s look at Brownlow Odds. Chris Judd is favourite right now and is paying $5 to win, but I don’t think he’ll come close. Simon Goodwin is a good chance at $5.50, but might I suggest some slightly riskier alternatives for all us tight arses. I reckon the best players to pick are those on winning teams. Sure, Jonathan Brown is having a superb year, but with the Lion’s current record, he won’t be scoring many 3 pointers from the umps. He’s paying $10 but don’t waste your money. The best risk in Brownlow betting, I reckon, is Brad Johnson at $26. This guy has been on fire. If only he’d stop smiling though, he might be taken more seriously by the TAB. I mean seriously, can anyone be THAT happy all the time. I personally, don’t think Ablett Jnr can win it, but for Geelong fanatics, he’s paying $18 right now. A better chance is Barry Hall at $17, I think.
Just to let you know, I’ll be putting my dough on Cam Bruce this weekend at $17. If Melbourne has a strong run home, this guy has a terrific chance, and his odds will only strengthen as the season progresses. Bruce is a great player. Just ask the Captain, who poached the Demon from my Dream Team earlier this year. I’m still hurting, you bastard!
Out.
I’m not a betting man. No, hang on, let me rephrase that: I don’t bet…much. In fact, my history as a punter is a little pathetic when compared to the gambling expertise exhibited by some of my good friends. The way that some of these friends know the ins and outs of the gambling way of life is often times cause for a good mate like me to worry, but since none of them have ever asked for a large cash loan, or stolen my DVD player for a quick profit at Cash Converters, I leave them be. I, on the other hand, up until a few weeks ago, couldn’t even tell you where to find the TAB in my neighbourhood – surely Mum would be proud – and I generally feel like a fuckin’ idiot in front of those touch screens inside. There’s usually a long line of bad smelling, cranky gamblers snaked behind me, waiting for me, ‘the rookie’, to find the part of the Sportsbet program where I can put $3.50 on Josh Hunt to kick the first goal against Essendon because he’s paying $33 odds. I once dared to ask some of the more experienced gamblers in line for change of a fiver. Needless to say, the coinage was not provided - the machine only takes notes! Note to self: If planning to make piss-weak bets, carry plenty of small notes, cause the touch screen does not give change.
I have had my victories though. I once won $75 on a Crows v Kangaroos Grand Final when I tipped the exact winning margin. The victory spurred me on to support the Crows (as a back-up club) for many years to come, and generally raised my profile as a punter amongst my circle of friends (at least for a few weeks). A few years later, in a moment of drunken clarity, a friend and I placed $20 on Carlton to beat Melbourne at Optus Oval by more than 34 points, and as luck would have it, this ridiculous bet scored us close to $90 dollars each. My crowning glory as a pro gambler came this year however, when one Friday afternoon, on my way to happy hour, I found $10 outside St Mary’s church here in Geelong. Being 4:25pm, I had a little time to spare before the cheap drinks began, so I sort out the local gambling house to try my luck with my new wealth. Geelong and St. Kilda were playing that night, and being there no money to be had on the Saints, I placed the whole 10 on the Cats to win by between 17 and 36 points at $8.60. It was my lucky day; the Cats won by 3 goals.
However, some of my more stupid bets have led me to believe that these 3 victories were just, well, lucky. Believe it or not though, I have learned a few things from my experiments with gambling, things which I feel confident enough to share with you. Number one, Victorians should not gamble in NSW. I don’t know if anyone has tried to place a bet on one of those stone-age machines up there, but having used the top of the line touch screens here in Victoria, it’s damn near impossible to navigate your way around their 1983 model devices. I almost wasted a whole 4 day stay in Sydney on trying to work this Atari-esque contraption out. Don’t waste your time. Number 2, unless you’re extremely wealthy, and can afford to bet large sums of dosh, there’s very little money to be had on backing favourites, when it comes to AFL betting; it’s a two horse race. Sure, Adelaide will beat Essendon on most occasions, everyone knows that, but why waste $5 backing them at $1.25 odds? The real money is in making slightly risky, sometimes absolutely ridiculous wagers. This is, after all, the catch 22 involved in all types of gambling, but this is also why AFL is the perfect game for tight-ass punters like myself.
“So where’s the money this year?” I hear you ask. Well, after browsing through Monday’s Herald-Sun and coming across some rather interesting odds from the TAB, I have a few risky recommendations to make to my feel cheap skates. First up, let’s talk about Flag Odds.
It’s no surprise that the TAB has Adelaide ($3.50) and West Coast ($4.75) as favourites, because let’s face it, most of us have already picked one of these two teams to take the Premiership anyway, but unless you have a couple of hundred dollars to splurge on either team, it’s not worth your tight-ass $10 bet. For the stingy punters like me, you wanna put your money on a team with an outside chance. While I’d rather tuck into a plate of cat faeces than suggest Sydney have a chance to win, they’re looking very tempting at $7.50, as do Geelong (for the faithful) at $14. Surprisingly, after an atrocious first half of the year, the TAB have placed Geelong as stronger favourites to take the Cup than Fremantle ($126), Port Adelaide ($26) and the Bulldogs ($21) who all currently sit above the Cats on the ladder – the Bulldogs being in the top four.
For the mega tight-ass bet, or just for a laugh, put a buck on Carlton or Essendon at….get this…$2001. I mean really, why give them a chance at all? That’s like giving odds on Terry Wallace to abstain from giving a press conference for 24 hours. Even at $2001, I don’t Terry could resist a day without media exposure. Onya Terry, you wanker.
Ok, let’s look at Brownlow Odds. Chris Judd is favourite right now and is paying $5 to win, but I don’t think he’ll come close. Simon Goodwin is a good chance at $5.50, but might I suggest some slightly riskier alternatives for all us tight arses. I reckon the best players to pick are those on winning teams. Sure, Jonathan Brown is having a superb year, but with the Lion’s current record, he won’t be scoring many 3 pointers from the umps. He’s paying $10 but don’t waste your money. The best risk in Brownlow betting, I reckon, is Brad Johnson at $26. This guy has been on fire. If only he’d stop smiling though, he might be taken more seriously by the TAB. I mean seriously, can anyone be THAT happy all the time. I personally, don’t think Ablett Jnr can win it, but for Geelong fanatics, he’s paying $18 right now. A better chance is Barry Hall at $17, I think.
Just to let you know, I’ll be putting my dough on Cam Bruce this weekend at $17. If Melbourne has a strong run home, this guy has a terrific chance, and his odds will only strengthen as the season progresses. Bruce is a great player. Just ask the Captain, who poached the Demon from my Dream Team earlier this year. I’m still hurting, you bastard!
Out.
posted by mrs. watson at 10:28 am
4 Comments:
Following that Goddanm shellacking, Geelong are now out to $21! Man, Adelaide are awesome!! Either that, or they cheat.
Place your bets...If Geelong lose will you "tuck into a plate of cat faeces" ?
I'll pay to see that.
In my defence, Mrs Watson, you were picking ahead of me but you took Luke Hodge... You had your chance!
And you're winning the dream team comp quite comfortably, I might add.
Excellent read
w88sport
Post a Comment
<< Home