Fun with numbers

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This week’s non-celebrity tipster for the first leg of the split round is the infamous Daz “Reef” Lowery, a Hawthorn supporter, who has been kind enough to provide us with a few comments on each game as well. Let’s get into it, game by game, winners in bold. (By the way, apologies for the lack of photos - technical difficulties.)

St.Kilda v Adelaide
Daz: Adelaide has the killer instinct

Captain: St.Kilda aren’t without a chance here at the dome, but Daz might be right about Adelaide; they look very, very good with plenty of players to come back from injury. What’s in the water there, besides way too much fluoride?

Mrs. Watson: What’s in the Water? Class, that’s what! Adelaide are way too classy for the sorry looking Saints, at the moment. ‘Potential’ Henschel to kick a bag. Burton to crack his head open (fingers crossed). Adelaide at the Dome by 20 or so.

Fremantle v Geelong
Daz: Geelong perform well when you least expect it

Mrs Watson: Who are you trying to kid, Daz? Geelong don’t have a chance in hell! Every fuckin’ Geelong supporter I talk to this week has spoken of the “good feeling” they have this week about the game. Now, I’m all for staying faithful, but acting stupid is something entirely different. Geelong stink interstate – it’s as easy as that. Fremantle to win by 30 points.

Captain: These days, the Lady Captain is all too familiar with Geelong’s struggles, which last week prompted this, “Geelong is like a bad boyfriend; they get your hopes up before crushing them in the worst possible way.” For this reason she thinks they’ll reel off about 3 wins in a row, thus regaining the confidence of the spurned fans, before falling in heap again, like the losers they always were. Well, one win down, two to go. Score one for the Lady Captain. I think there’s some merit in her idea, and I know Geelong doesn’t have any room for error. So book me a seat on that ‘good feelin’ train, Mrs. Watson, cats by less than 2 goals.

Brisbane v Western Bulldogs
Daz: No-one on the WB can stop Jon Brown

Captain: An excellent point here from Reef, yet I think he’s stopped short; I would say no-one in the league can stop Brown. He is finally starting to look consistently Careyish. You know, with him being from Warrnambool, I always held out hope that he’d one day he’d play for Geelong. He seems pretty happy in Brisbane however; what can we offer him that Queensland can’t, Mrs. Watson?

Mrs. Watson: A coach that won’t rip your nuts off for glancing at his wife’s cleavage. I think Bulldogs. 10 points.

Captain: And, let’s be honest, if you are following in Wayne’s footsteps this sort of thing is bound to come up.

Port Adelaide v West Coast
Daz: Midfield too good

Mrs Watson: I can’t explain it, but for some reason, this season I’ve enjoyed watching Port Adelaide play. Don’t get me wrong, I know a pack of Girl Guides who could serve as a stronger back line, but I think they’re getting their shit back together (somewhat) this year. Lade is in superb form, the Cornes’ can’t be stopped, and if Tredrea plays like he did last week, this’ll be a very close game. Ebert for 3 goals. Port by 18 points.

Captain: Ebert!? Anyone but him! Oh well, at least you’re reading my articles. Tell me, is Stuart Dew still around? Or has he finally ballooned to Kirstie Alley type dimensions? I’m interested because Josh Hunt could be useful if given the correct role, you know, being able to kick the ball 60+ metres and all. Lips Thompson might want to take a look at some Port Adelaide game tapes from 2004, ‘cos I’m pretty sure Stuart Dew wasn’t having 6 goals kicked on him at full-back every week.

Hawthorn v Richmond
Daz: Hawks go alright in Tassie

Captain: Yep, the Hawks like Tassie alright, but not as much as Jon Hay! Eh? Eh? Anyone? Ah forget it. Hawthorn could probably use another tall defender at the moment however, and a drunk Jon Hay is still probably better than Zac Dawson. You know, after that TV show, I just don’t trust anyone called Dawson anymore. It could be Daz’s Hawthorn loyalty showing through here, but it could also be his in-built reluctance to trust anything Richmond does, otherwise known as, ‘common sense’. I can’t wait til Lance Franklin becomes a player, Hawks to get back on the winners list.

Mrs. Watson: I say, if the Hawks like Tasmania so much, why don’t they just move the whole club there? Better (and cheaper) still, keep the team in Melbourne, but just scatter the crowd with the odd toothless two-headed yokel, and turn the volume on the siren right down so that no bastard can hear it. If the HFC do this, they won’t be stopped. I’m with you Daz, Hawks by less than 20.

Essendon v Melbourne
Daz: Bombers stink, Dees too good

Mrs. Watson: Yes, the Bombers stink, but let’s not forget that Melbourne lost to Carlton in Round 1, and Essendon smell like a fuckin’ banana split compared to those tip rats. I’m predicting a similar show of over-confidence in this game from the Dees, and another shameful loss. Hird is back. Essendon will win (do I really believe that?). 5 points.

Captain: While I too am waiting for the typical Melbourne ‘over-confident-fade-out’ game, I don’t think it’s gonna be this week. Hird will help, but only if the senile Sheedy plays him the forward half. This will make Essendon focus their forward delivery towards Hird, allowing Scott Lucas to ‘back door’ his Hird-aware defender and kick 4 of the cheapest goals you’ll ever see in a losing side. Typical Lucas.