Drowning, or, Melting

Chris Scott’s crucible is upon us. Or perhaps, rather, it is upon him.


In 2011 Scott inherited a hardened outfit undergoing a large amount of change after a large amount of success. Perhaps freshened up by the new voice, the playing group responded to Scott and claimed the 2011 premiership in magnificent, shit-eating-grin glory. It was as unexpected as it was beautiful.


Since then Geelong has, to put it mildly, struggled in finals despite finishing with the regular season in good position. Including 2011, Geelong’s record under Scott in finals is a middling 4-5. Since 2011 it is an ugly 1-5. Last year they missed the finals all together. The graph is clearly trending in the wrong direction.


But behold 2016 and the sorcerer Stephen Wells! In a rare case of people from Geelong willingly moving back, The Cats recruit the AFL’s best midfielder, and a top-5 centre-half back. They add a genuine ruck, and another Selwood. They find a handy back pocket playing in Lara, and a ready-made midfielder playing in the WAFL. The Wizard of Oz medical team finds a knee for Denzel, a hamstring for Cowan, and ruby slippers for both Lincoln McCarthy and Rhys Stanley. The only serious casualty is Jackson Thurlow who, going by his luck, is due to have  a house land on him at any moment. Round one and the film opens in full colour. The Cats tear Hawthorn apart and Patrick Fucking Dangerfield launches everything except the flying monkeys. Heels are clicked.


But for the rest of the year Geelong swings between devastating and disinterested. They play only a handful of games at the MCG, including a loss to Collingwood and underwhelming wins against Essendon and Richmond – the latter needing a miracle last quarter to avoid a fully-fledged witch hunt. Tellingly, the Round 1 victory over Hawthorn remains their only good win at the home of football, and perhaps still their best win of the season. But April has little relevance in September. Do I even need to mention Kansas?


Five years into his tenure, it is fair to say this is well and truly Scott’s team. Tactically they have made some changes that have largely been defensive: The Cats are harder to score against – 2^nd in the league in points allowed – but this has come at the cost of the free-flowing, attacking football Geelong has been known for, which is limited to spurts now, or 4^th quarters against Richmond. This seems like a response to getting killed on the rebound, which, if you recall, seemed to happen an awful lot last year. Geelong works the ball slowly from defence now, often chipping their way along the wings, which leaves them able to recover if the ball is turned over. This is harm-reduction: The Geelong defence is rarely out of position, but with the ball moving so slowly into the front half, the opposing defence rarely is either.


This is the deal Chris Scott has struck. The Cats are no longer involved in shoot-outs, Scott instead sets up a defensive battle that backs the talent at his disposal to eventually overwhelm the opposition. They grind out ugly wins via a crowded forward line, happy to scrape one goal more a quarter than the opposition. 2007, this is not.


The good news is that it’s also not 2015. For all their faults (and a soft schedule), this appears to be working; The Cats are only percentage out of top place, lead the league in inside 50 differential (12 more per game than their opponents!), and their record against top eight teams is excellent.


The bad news, however, is that history suggests the Cats don’t score enough to challenge for the flag. And while their defensive zone/press works beautifully at narrow grounds like Kardinia Park, Ethiad Stadium and *ahem* Adelaide Oval, and against rebound/slingshot teams like Hawthorn, West Coast and *ahem* Adelaide, it doesn’t look nearly as organised on the wider MCG, or nearly as effective against stoppage focused, contested ball teams like Sydney and perhaps GWS and North Melbourne.


With the above mentioned influx of new players there is still questions about Geelong’s best 22, and there will be some difficult selection/positional decisions made in September. But be it Josh Caddy or Josh Cowan, the playing list is talented and healthy enough; this is clearly and directly about the coaching of Chris Scott.


A crucible is literally a vessel where substances melt at high temperature; figuratively it is a test, a position that forces you to make tough decisions, and influences change. The heat is about to go to Chris Scott. Let’s hope something of 2011 Cats remains in the forge.