The Courage of the Great Known, or, A Bird in Hand

The AFL trade and draft period has grown to such a degree that it has become more exciting to certain supporters than the game itself. For the clubs this period provides them with access to talent, for the supporters it provides hope. And hope does not have a use-by date.

This was the first AFL trade period in which clubs were allowed to trade future draft selections, a tweak to the rules that lead to a few more deals and a few more raised eyebrows from both journalists and supporters who have swallowed the “Future! Future! Future!” mantra that has become AFL industry standard: Clubs ask for patience from their supporters, admit they are going through a rebuild and covertly let themselves off the hook. They move the goalposts so that the rebuild is sold as prudent, forward-thinking, and the smart long-term play instead of an admission of failure, an illustration past mistakes. Supporters no longer worry about the upcoming season, they want to “win” the trade period – sure, we lost our best 4 players, but look at this value chart! They are peddled unnamed potential (four draft pick inside the top 20!) and the magic bullet of youth (unwanted GWS players!) as a reason for optimism. Losses be damned, development is what we want, just don’t ask us what it looks like, considering we haven’t been able to do it with last years draftees. Instead keep focusing on 2-3 years from now when the “kids” have reached the magical 50-game mark and suddenly become stars.

The allure of draft choices is a “money or the box!?!” scenario in which the mesmerized, dopey studio audience hysterically chants for the box and it’s inherent promise, regardless of cold, hard currency, of birds in hand and their value relative to proximity of bush. Looking ahead is more exciting than the present reality because it is all potential and no follow through, all imagined prodigies and NAB rising star winners and absolutely zero Richard Tamblings. It is a sporting purgatory where you can never be happy with the current season but nor can you ever be upset, it is a Terry Wallace-esque “five year plan”, it is a tree that grows with fruit that never ripens.

No, draft picks and youth are no promise. Look at Gold Coast and GWS – supposedly winning every second premiership by now – half of their early picks have just been given away for 25 cents on the dollar. And that’s what must be remembered during the trade period, that a first-round round draft selection is just as likely to be Billie Smedts as it is Joel Selwood. Even I had a few good under-15 games.

Geelong has taken the seemingly unpopular route of betting on known commodities over unknown draft selections, and some supporters and media will complain about over-paying, or mortgaging the future, or other such dramatic, uninformed opinions. But Geelong has given up nothing but Schrodinger’s ruck-rover (and a few VFL players who have, by virtue of their absence, suddenly morphed into Wayne Carey, Michael Voss and James Hird) and gained talented, proven players, who fill specific, glaring needs.

The goal is not to accumulate first round picks, it is to win the premiership. And at some stage you have to look at the current season and think, Hell, someone has to win these games, why not us?