Re-build or Re-Load, or, Danger Signs
The Lieutenant Pete Mitchell “Keep Sending Him Up” Group:
Jackson Thurlow, Jordan Murdoch, Darcy Lang, and Jed Bews: Ok, so they're already re-signed. But they are four of the club’s most promising young players and should be a lock to play seniors the rest of 2015, regardless of result or form. The more exposure to AFL pressure and in-game scenarios the better; and that goes double if The Cats can somehow sneak into the finals, which, with player development in mind, should absolutely be the goal (and would be an AFL record for consecutive finals appearances by a club).
The “Goodnight and Good Luck” Group:
Jared Rivers: Despite being in very good form Rivers himself has flagged this year as a 90% chance to be his last. He has been probably underrated by Geelong fans but has arguably been our most consistent defender this year.
Sam Blease: Never a good sign when Melbourne delists you. Has looked good in the VFL but not gotten the chance in the seniors. As advertised, his disposal and defensive efforts too often let him down. And while we’re here, turnovers, and thus disposal skills, are becoming increasingly crucial in the AFL. I cannot stress this enough. Teams cannot afford to carry players with suspect skills.
Dawson Simpson: It appears that injuries lead to a lack of mobility and confidence for big Daws, who just can’t put it all together. Just getting back to AFL level after major knee surgery AND having two discs removed from his back is a terrific achievement.
Hamish McIntosh: Likely to retire, McIntosh is the one “recycled player” decision that seems to rankle Geelong supporters the most. At the time I almost talked myself into it, thinking, “Former all-Australian… A few injuries, sure, but that means less tread on the tires… It worked with Brad Ottens… Alright, Hamish freakin’ McIntosh!” But he’s never been fit which, in hindsight, seems like the obvious outcome for someone his age. And that should be the two main points to consider in these situations; injuries and age. Example: Shaun Burgoyne looked almost cooked at Port Adelaide but was only 27 when he moved Hawthorn; he had time to get his body right, was moved to half-back, and has hardly missed a game in 5 years. The Cats probably underestimated the battle McIntosh would face to get his body right considering his age and that the ruck is probably the most demanding position in the game. Hopefully we see them tread a more cautious line with this in future considering the amount of (younger) long-term injury candidates dealt with recently. There’s still room for the occasional homerun swing but the risk strategy should be weighted to consider age.
Brad Hartman: Has already left the club for personal reasons.
James Toohey: Unfortunately injuries derailed what looked like an inspired rookie selection. Anyone related to the great Bernard Toohey is ok in my book.
Josh Cowan: The one armed scissor has unfortunately largely been the one hamstring scissor, and any read on his form is based on ancient history. The club must really rate him but there’s only so many eggs I can put in this next basket…
The “Just Needs One Good Pre-Season” Group, aka, “We’ve Come This Far”, aka, “In For a Penny, In For a Pound”:
Nathan Vardy: No-one is sure where his best position is, if and when he gets himself fit, but, as noted above, talented big guys generally get a longer leash due to their relative rarity, and Vardy gets the benefit because of his relative youth. Ideally he plays something like 80/20 forward/ruck and fills the Mitch Clark/Josh Walker spot. He’s shown some real glimpses but is coming from a long way back.
Daniel Menzel: One of the great news stories from Geelong has been Menzel getting back to play two VFL games now, and pulling up well. I watched the second one on TV and in a high quality game he looked to still have the class he displayed in 2011. It remains to be seen if he’s capable of getting back up to AFL speed.
The Krusty the Clown “Dump Truck Full of Money” Group
Mark Blicavs: Pay the man. Talk about making the leap, Blitz has gone from interesting project to favourite to win the club’s best & fairest award. He wins his own ball, makes good decisions, and can play every position on the ground; his ceiling as a player is probably Adam Goodes. Looking forward I’m inclined to think a combination of Stanley, Clark and Blitz in the ruck would be revolutionary, as all three are pretty good when the ball hits the ground, Stanly and Blitz both essentially becoming 200cm midfielders. Blitz must absolutely must be retained and all signs are pointing to this getting done sooner rather than later.
The Larry the Cable Guy “Git-r-done” Group
Cameron Guthrie: Although he sometimes gets ahead of himself, he is in the core group that is required. Should split his time between half-back and midfield.
Jimmy Bartel: If Jim wants to go around again, Jim goes around again.
Josh Walker: Every team needs a guy like this; a versatile, serviceable, reliable player who is just outside the best 22 and fills in when required, and that might be underselling him. As mentioned earlier he needs to work on his skills but he is still only 22 years old so there is scope for improvement.
Jared Jansen: Drafted highly and still very early in his career. He seems to go missing for large portions of games but has shown flashes. Another year of full-time VFL wouldn’t be the worst thing to happen to him; look what it did for Jed Bews.
Shane Kersten: Another that tends to drift in and out of games, he really needs to be settled into a permanent position in the F50. I see no reason why he cannot play the Darling/Gunston third tall/leading forward role, and play it reasonably well.
Jake Kolodjashnij: Looked really good on debut; a perfect replacement for Rivers. And since I have not much to add let me state for the record that “Larry the Cable Guy” is garbage.
The “realestate.com.au/westernsydney” Group:
Steven Motlop: First of all, I would much prefer Motlop to stay at Geelong. He’s quick, creative and somewhat unique in what is otherwise a bit of a one-paced midfield. He can also create goals out of nothing, an increasingly valuable commodity in a stoppage-heavy game. I still have some semblance of confidence that he will re-sign, however, there’s nothing wrong with selling high on someone who wants out, or simply wants too much money. Motlop would demand at least a first round pick in return.
The Paul Chapman Memorial “As Long As You’re Okay With Playing Some VFL” Group
James Kelly/Andrew Mackie: There’s probably room for both on the list as long as the club pick their spots a little bit. It’s tricky managing the transition of decorated players late in their career; I’m sure the club wants to be respectful but this a business of winning, and ceremony cannot stand in the way of progress. There’s always injuries, suspension and match-ups to consider, so having a couple of versatile veterans play 6-15 AFL games for the year while providing leadership for the VFL group would be ideal. The question becomes, can they accept the diminished role? Chapman couldn’t and left the club. Let’s hope at least one of these two stay.
The “Please Jump Before You’re Pushed” Group
Steve Johnson: It is becoming apparent that it is much closer to the end for the old dog than he probably thinks (if that makes sense). The move to play him closer to goal was a logical progression but even so, he is being exposed. He no longer has the quickness or explosiveness to sidestep or break tackles like he used to, denying him that extra second of time, that extra metre of space, which is crucial. A premiership champion, it would be hard for him to accept playing VFL and equally as hard for us to watch it.
Matthew Stokes: Stokes has always been a battler. He was overlooked in his original draft class before being selected late by Geelong the following year. He made his place in the team through pure hustle. But when hustle players lose a step they come back to the pack very quickly, and at the moment Stokes is failing to impact games the way small forwards need to. I get the feeling he will see the writing on the wall and step aside.
Corey Enright: I don’t know what to say here, other than the time is right for Boris to retire. An all-time great, not only of the club, but of the game itself, he is perhaps the greatest half-back of all time, as well as a personal favourite.
That makes five players I expect to retire (McIntosh, Rivers, Johnson, Stokes & Enright), a further two I’d delist (Blease, Cowan) and two who have already left the club (Hartman, Toohey), making a total of 9 list changes, right on the 2014 average of 9.1 players turned over per club between seasons. (Note: Geelong lost 10 players last season: Nick Bourke, Mitch Brown, George Burbury, Allen Christensen, Joel Hamling, Taylor Hunt, Jordan Schroder, Jackson Sheringham, Jesse Stringer, and Travis Varcoe.) There are also potentially the trade of Motlop if a contract agreement can’t be reached but we’ll park this idea for the time being.
Importantly, and vastly differently to last year, the proposed player losses would feature some foundational, premiership players – and potentially leave some big shoes to fill – but it is 2015, not 2007 and veterans must be taken on a case by case basis. Example: Tom Lonergan has been very good this season and the demands of his particular role make it possible to see him continuing at a high level in 2016. Plus, there is no key position defender in the VFL that Tom is keeping out of the side, hampering potential development.
Without Steve Johnson, on the other hand, a spot opens up for a medium forward/utility such as Menzel, Cockatoo, Smedts, Kersten, Jansen etc. who can develop alongside his similarly aged teammates as the playing group grows together. Right now Steve Johnson is absolutely a better AFL player than all those mentioned but will that be the case this time next year? (Plus, “Stevie J being Stevie J” is all well and good when you’re up by 15 goals every week, but it’s fucking frustrating when you’re down by 9 points.)
The idea is to be constantly addressing positional succession plans within the list. Looking at a projected 2016 and beyond side, the obvious deficiencies are genuine midfielders and key position defence (Fine. And ruck, depending on fitness and positional arrangements). And who have the Cats been linked with in 2016? Patrick Dangerfield, Scott Selwood and Lachie Henderson; two midfielders and a key position defender. Granted, all of the above have a deeper attachment to Geelong outside of football, but the point, and potential list decisions (not to mention the somewhat buried lead of this blog) remains: re-build or re-load?
With Harry Taylor, Tom Hawkins and Joel Selwood you have arguably the league’s best midfielder, KPF and KPD in their absolute prime and I think the club needs to re-load while these three remain the core of the team. Of the above mentioned targets for Geelong, Dangerfield is eligible to come across as a restricted free agent (if Adelaide play nice) costing them nothing at the trade table. He has several prime years left, fills a need and would walk into the best 18 at any team. It’s a no-brainer.
Scott Selwood is also a restricted free agent but is not in the class of Dangerfield. He has some injury concerns, something the club may be gun shy on, and his form has dropped off as the Eagles have improved. However, with the projected de-listings above there is room on the list and in the salary cap. Sign him up. Another Selwood cannot be a bad thing.
Lachie Henderson is a more difficult case. He would likely cost a high draft pick and, although he theoretically provides a succession plan in key defence, he has been consistently inconsistent at both Carlton and Brisbane. I would pass on Henderson, and keep the reasonably high draft pick Carlton would seek in return. In terms of key defence, Blitz has taken some reps there, long term injured Cameron Delaney is a chance to come up, and perhaps you take a punt on a free agent like Tayte Pears, a young KPD with some injury concern but good pedigree and the youth to turn it around.
So how does that potential 2016 side look assuming the above moves are possible and, with blinding optimism, full availability of players?
B: Bews, Lonergan, Kolodjashnij
HB: Thurlow, Taylor, Guthrie
C: Duncan, Bartel, Blicavs
HF: Motlop, Hawkins, Caddy
F: Murdoch, Clark, Kersten
R: Stanley, Dangerfield, J Selwood
Int: S Selwood, Menzel, Lang
Sub: Gregson
Emergencies: Smedts, Kelly, Cockatoo, Mackie, Horlin-Smith, Vardy, Walker, Jansen, McCarthy, Bates, Gore, Cunico
The rest of 2015 needs to spent exposing and developing younger players (which, crucially, includes chasing 8th position and exposing them to finals) to arm the club with further knowledge to support these decisions. If the Cats can improve internally, add Dangerfield, and get some continuity with their ruck, they'll find themselves in top four territory again in 2016.
posted by the captain at 6:34 pm
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