The NAB Challenge, or, Un/Knowing
After a long and eventful off-season, the return of AFL, even in its ‘shits n gigs’ preseason guise, has been a sweet relief. With the Cats trotting out a very different looking team (25% list turnover from last season) I thought it might be good to see what, if anything, the preseason has shown us. And in the spirit of the debacle that is the current US election I thought I’d look to another Donald, specifically Donald Rumsfeld, to help us work out what we know and what we don’t know and what we don’t know we don’t know.
The Known Knowns
Patrick Friggin’ Dangerfield is really friggin’ good:
I mean, this is the ultimate “known known”, but still it has been nice to watch him closely the past few weeks. He is dynamic in clearance situations, works both up and down the ground, attacks the goals, is hard at the ball, good overhead, makes good decisions and is just generally a complete, all-star footballer. Jesus, I can’t wait to see him and Selwood in the same midfield.
The Cats needed ruck help:
There has been a noticeable difference in the ruck contests and clearances, with both Zac Smith and Rhys Stanley looking really impressive in the middle and around the ground. They need to stay fit but we only have to go back to Bradley “all of you” Ottens to see the value of a true number one ruck. Plus it means Blitz is left alone to do Blitz things, i.e. become Geelong’s version of Adam Goodes.
Mitch Duncan is a terrific kick:
As was reported on the AFL website in the off-season, Fletch is in the top-5 kicks in the AFL in terms of accuracy, something my own eyes have been telling me since 2011. Good things happen when Duncan is the man delivering the kick inside forward 50, or kicking for goal himself. It’s for this reason that it’s crucial he is used ahead of the ball.
Jackson Thurlow will be missed:
Speaking of great kicks, another turn of bad luck for Thurlow, who many, including me, expecting big things from this season. Not only that, but The Cats were already a small/mid-sized defender short, now they’ll need to find another one. Which reminds me…
The Known Unknowns
Cam Guthrie’s best position:
While Guthrie is an emerging midfielder, with Thurlow going down, he is now desperately needed in the back pocket. And while I’m sure he’ll rotate through both areas of the ground, for the time being he serves the team best by playing in defence.
The availability of Mitch Clark:
Look, this was always a high risk/reward type situation. And forget the mental health stuff for a moment: coming back after 12 months out of the game was always going to be tough physically on anyone, let alone a 200cm, 100kg, power player with a history of soft-tissue injuries. But am I crazy to think he might have a Clark Keating-type August-September run left in him?
The Travis Varcoe rebirth narrative:
I know that I don’t know the strange psychology that allowed this to gain steam, but there’s this swell of feeling that he’s somehow reinvented himself. And no disrespect to TV, but to the naked, untrained eye, he appears to be the exact same player at Collingwood he was at Geelong: A good, albeit sometimes frustrating footballer. Varcoe averaged two more disposals at Collingwood in 2015 than in his last year at Geelong but, tellingly, less contested possessions, less clearances, less contested marks, and less 1-percenters, the very areas he was often accused of being deficient in.
The extent of Selwood’s injury:
This reeks of Selwood “being a week away” for the next 8 weeks. Both of them. And while we’re here, I think people are underrating Scott Selwood. He’ll surprise some people in the second half of the season.
Where Lachie Henderson fits:
He was recruited to play in defence, that much has been confirmed by the coaches themselves, but with Lonergan (still underrated), Harry Taylor (best when he has a job to do), Koldasjni (improving rapidly), and Mackie (“you want a shot at the title?”) the backline looks awfully top heavy. Meanwhile Geelong is still looking for a second marking option up front to go with Hawkins: Clark is injured, Stanley is part-time, Vardy deserves his own “unknown” section, and Kersten seems unable to find anything that works on the field as well as his moustache/long hair combo works off it. Henderson has spent all pre-season in a key defensive role and yet I can’t shake the feeling that by the 3rd quarter of the Hawthorn game he’ll be lining up at full forward.
The Unknown Unknowns:
[By definition this section should remain empty. But since we’re here, and since it’s tangentially on topic, allow me a rant: Donald Trump not only appears to be a bigoted liar, and generally just an abhorrent human, he also appears to be what a lot of Americans want as the leader of their country. And it would be tempting to say “well, he’s the President they deserve” and laugh at their blinding idiocy. However, the stakes here are unspeakably high. This isn’t the nomination to be captain of your Wednesday night indoor cricket team, this is the POTUS, a position that affects tens of millions of people in and, importantly, outside of the USA. And I wouldn’t trust that clown to run the Belbrae Primary School canteen. At some point the Republican Party needs to show some, you know, actual leadership and say “this guys is crazy, a liar, some of the shit he’s been endorsing are things we call ‘war crimes’, and we’re not going to endorse him.” And I still have some misguided confidence that they will do this, if only because it’s in the self-interest of the Republicans to recognize that having a popular candidate in the next election is not as important as ruining the entire Republican Party, let alone America, and possibly the rest of the world, for the next 35-40 years. End rant.]
The Unknown Knowns
Bonus Round: There is a fourth combination here that some psychologists would argue is just as real as the others – that which we know but refuse to acknowledge that we know.
That Geelong are still a year away from a flag:
I’m optimistic, as always, but deep down buried in the sub-conscious I reckon The Cats will need this season to build continuity with the new personnel, build a game plan that suits that personnel, and finally answer some questions around some fringe players, before launching into 2017 absolute cherry-ripe. But we’re a long way from there. And anything can happen. The world's a big place.
The Known Knowns
Patrick Friggin’ Dangerfield is really friggin’ good:
I mean, this is the ultimate “known known”, but still it has been nice to watch him closely the past few weeks. He is dynamic in clearance situations, works both up and down the ground, attacks the goals, is hard at the ball, good overhead, makes good decisions and is just generally a complete, all-star footballer. Jesus, I can’t wait to see him and Selwood in the same midfield.
The Cats needed ruck help:
There has been a noticeable difference in the ruck contests and clearances, with both Zac Smith and Rhys Stanley looking really impressive in the middle and around the ground. They need to stay fit but we only have to go back to Bradley “all of you” Ottens to see the value of a true number one ruck. Plus it means Blitz is left alone to do Blitz things, i.e. become Geelong’s version of Adam Goodes.
Mitch Duncan is a terrific kick:
As was reported on the AFL website in the off-season, Fletch is in the top-5 kicks in the AFL in terms of accuracy, something my own eyes have been telling me since 2011. Good things happen when Duncan is the man delivering the kick inside forward 50, or kicking for goal himself. It’s for this reason that it’s crucial he is used ahead of the ball.
Jackson Thurlow will be missed:
Speaking of great kicks, another turn of bad luck for Thurlow, who many, including me, expecting big things from this season. Not only that, but The Cats were already a small/mid-sized defender short, now they’ll need to find another one. Which reminds me…
The Known Unknowns
Cam Guthrie’s best position:
While Guthrie is an emerging midfielder, with Thurlow going down, he is now desperately needed in the back pocket. And while I’m sure he’ll rotate through both areas of the ground, for the time being he serves the team best by playing in defence.
The availability of Mitch Clark:
Look, this was always a high risk/reward type situation. And forget the mental health stuff for a moment: coming back after 12 months out of the game was always going to be tough physically on anyone, let alone a 200cm, 100kg, power player with a history of soft-tissue injuries. But am I crazy to think he might have a Clark Keating-type August-September run left in him?
The Travis Varcoe rebirth narrative:
I know that I don’t know the strange psychology that allowed this to gain steam, but there’s this swell of feeling that he’s somehow reinvented himself. And no disrespect to TV, but to the naked, untrained eye, he appears to be the exact same player at Collingwood he was at Geelong: A good, albeit sometimes frustrating footballer. Varcoe averaged two more disposals at Collingwood in 2015 than in his last year at Geelong but, tellingly, less contested possessions, less clearances, less contested marks, and less 1-percenters, the very areas he was often accused of being deficient in.
The extent of Selwood’s injury:
This reeks of Selwood “being a week away” for the next 8 weeks. Both of them. And while we’re here, I think people are underrating Scott Selwood. He’ll surprise some people in the second half of the season.
Where Lachie Henderson fits:
He was recruited to play in defence, that much has been confirmed by the coaches themselves, but with Lonergan (still underrated), Harry Taylor (best when he has a job to do), Koldasjni (improving rapidly), and Mackie (“you want a shot at the title?”) the backline looks awfully top heavy. Meanwhile Geelong is still looking for a second marking option up front to go with Hawkins: Clark is injured, Stanley is part-time, Vardy deserves his own “unknown” section, and Kersten seems unable to find anything that works on the field as well as his moustache/long hair combo works off it. Henderson has spent all pre-season in a key defensive role and yet I can’t shake the feeling that by the 3rd quarter of the Hawthorn game he’ll be lining up at full forward.
The Unknown Unknowns:
[By definition this section should remain empty. But since we’re here, and since it’s tangentially on topic, allow me a rant: Donald Trump not only appears to be a bigoted liar, and generally just an abhorrent human, he also appears to be what a lot of Americans want as the leader of their country. And it would be tempting to say “well, he’s the President they deserve” and laugh at their blinding idiocy. However, the stakes here are unspeakably high. This isn’t the nomination to be captain of your Wednesday night indoor cricket team, this is the POTUS, a position that affects tens of millions of people in and, importantly, outside of the USA. And I wouldn’t trust that clown to run the Belbrae Primary School canteen. At some point the Republican Party needs to show some, you know, actual leadership and say “this guys is crazy, a liar, some of the shit he’s been endorsing are things we call ‘war crimes’, and we’re not going to endorse him.” And I still have some misguided confidence that they will do this, if only because it’s in the self-interest of the Republicans to recognize that having a popular candidate in the next election is not as important as ruining the entire Republican Party, let alone America, and possibly the rest of the world, for the next 35-40 years. End rant.]
The Unknown Knowns
Bonus Round: There is a fourth combination here that some psychologists would argue is just as real as the others – that which we know but refuse to acknowledge that we know.
That Geelong are still a year away from a flag:
I’m optimistic, as always, but deep down buried in the sub-conscious I reckon The Cats will need this season to build continuity with the new personnel, build a game plan that suits that personnel, and finally answer some questions around some fringe players, before launching into 2017 absolute cherry-ripe. But we’re a long way from there. And anything can happen. The world's a big place.
posted by the captain at 7:16 pm
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